Tue, Jan 30, 2018·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Ottawa Senators 1, Carolina Hurricanes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 010 | 112 | 08 | 130 |
| CAR | 08 | 018 | 213 | 239 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 18:48OTTJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Zack Smith, Erik Karlsson · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P3 1:49CARSebastian AhoAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Jordan Staal · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P3 11:32CARVictor RaskPPGWGAssists: Justin Williams, Noah Hanifin · Snap, 0.08 xG1–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 7:18CARSebastian Aho: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 18:53OTTErik Karlsson: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:39OTTZack Smith: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 17:28OTTDion Phaneuf: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smith won the faceoff against Rask
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBurrows – DiDomenico – White7:37
xG 0.72–0.35 (67%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Brassard – Paajarvi – Dzingel11:55
xG 0.51–0.65 (44%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Smith – Pageau11:23
xG 0.39–0.56 (41%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Ryan – Hoffman – Duchene12:46
xG 0.44–0.82 (35%)attempts 15–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Phaneuf – Ceci6:31
xG 0.49–0.46 (52%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Karlsson9:55
xG 0.39–0.36 (52%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Chabot8:57
xG 0.52–0.53 (50%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStempniak – Skinner – Ryan11:40
xG 0.91–0.26 (78%)attempts 19–4goals 0–0
- Staal – Teravainen – Aho7:00
xG 0.78–0.15 (84%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Kruger – Nordstrom – McGinn2:07
xG 0.09–0.10 (47%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Kruger – Nordstrom – Lindholm3:54
xG 0.13–0.20 (41%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Fleury16:14
xG 0.98–0.65 (60%)attempts 25–15goals 1–0
- Slavin – Pesce14:14
xG 0.70–0.42 (63%)attempts 16–13goals 0–1
- van Riemsdyk – Hanifin16:34
xG 0.80–0.82 (49%)attempts 19–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).