Tue, Jan 30, 2018·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Colorado Avalanche 3, Vancouver Canucks 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 011 | 310 | 09 | 00 | 330 |
| VAN | 28 | 011 | 16 | 11 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:36VANBo HorvatAssists: Thomas Vanek, Chris Tanev · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 11:45VANMichael Del ZottoAssists: Chris Tanev, Jake Virtanen · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–2
- P2 4:20COLJ.T. CompherAssists: Erik Johnson, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–2
- P2 6:22COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Tyson Barrie, Mikko Rantanen · Deflected, 0.22 xG2–2
- P2 15:05COLGabriel LandeskogPPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Samuel Girard · Wrist, 0.26 xG3–2
- P3 2:00VANDaniel SedinPPAssists: Henrik Sedin, Brock Boeser · Deflected, 0.16 xG3–3
- OT 1:07VANSven BaertschiGWGAssists: Brandon Sutter, Chris Tanev · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–4
Penalties (10)
- P2 2:05VANTroy Stecher: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:43COLNail Yakupov: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 7:43COLNail Yakupov: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:43VANMichael Del Zotto: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:40COLNathan MacKinnon: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:45VANThomas Vanek: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 17:13VANAlexander Edler: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:00COLDominic Toninato: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 1:41COLNikita Zadorov: Cross checking2 min
- P3 3:58VANChris Tanev: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kerfoot won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen7:47
xG 0.58–0.25 (70%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Landeskog – Kerfoot – Rantanen4:53
xG 0.24–0.10 (70%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Wilson – Kerfoot – Compher5:51
xG 0.26–0.15 (64%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Yakupov – Toninato – Jost2:51
xG 0.15–0.16 (48%)attempts 2–5goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Lindholm5:16
xG 0.56–0.02 (97%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Nemeth – Girard7:33
xG 0.53–0.22 (71%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
- Barrie – Nemeth2:36
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBaertschi – Horvat – Boeser5:59
xG 0.31–0.06 (83%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Vanek – Baertschi – Horvat6:22
xG 0.36–0.28 (56%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Gagner – Gaunce – Virtanen5:52
xG 0.24–0.31 (44%)attempts 7–4goals 1–1
- Sedin – Sedin – Boeser5:26
xG 0.09–0.36 (21%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Biega – Hutton11:24
xG 0.56–0.55 (50%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Del Zotto – Tanev14:59
xG 0.30–0.33 (48%)attempts 11–11goals 2–0
- Edler – Stecher17:16
xG 0.46–0.83 (35%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).