Wed, Jan 31, 2018·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
New York Islanders 0, Toronto Maple Leafs 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 03 | 011 | 014 | 028 |
| TOR | 213 | 219 | 118 | 550 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:37TORKasperi KapanenGWGUnassisted · Deflected, 0.37 xG0–1
- P1 13:39TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Zach Hyman, Jake Gardiner · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 10:32TORMitch MarnerAssists: Nazem Kadri, Connor Carrick · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–3
- P2 18:59TORTravis DermottAssists: William Nylander · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–4
- P3 3:42TORJustin HollAssists: Auston Matthews, Travis Dermott · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–5
Penalties (3)
- P2 11:22TORAndreas Borgman: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 15:19NYIJohn Tavares: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:07NYIThomas Hickey: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bozak won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Tavares – Beauvillier5:14
xG 0.44–0.17 (72%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Cizikas – Fritz7:23
xG 0.44–0.25 (64%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Bailey – Lee – Barzal3:16
xG 0.11–0.33 (25%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Eberle – Barzal – Beauvillier6:25
xG 0.22–0.56 (29%)attempts 10–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Hickey – Pulock14:59
xG 0.40–0.76 (34%)attempts 18–13goals 0–0
- Leddy – Mayfield15:13
xG 0.40–0.94 (30%)attempts 14–21goals 0–3
- Seidenberg – Pelech16:41
xG 0.40–1.73 (19%)attempts 13–29goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Bozak – Brown10:54
xG 1.09–0.05 (96%)attempts 17–4goals 0–0
- Moore – Komarov – Kapanen9:02
xG 0.96–0.16 (86%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Marleau – Kadri – Marner9:11
xG 0.84–0.15 (85%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Hyman – Nylander – Matthews11:19
xG 0.81–0.89 (48%)attempts 15–19goals 3–0
Defence pairs
- bestHoll – Dermott14:06
xG 1.55–0.32 (83%)attempts 26–14goals 3–0
- Gardiner – Zaitsev17:15
xG 1.10–0.52 (68%)attempts 21–19goals 1–0
- Carrick – Borgman15:40
xG 0.83–0.44 (65%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).