Wed, Jan 31, 2018·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
San Jose Sharks 1, Detroit Red Wings 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 011 | 09 | 111 | 00 | 3 | 131 |
| DET | 012 | 013 | 112 | 07 | 4 | 244 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 6:48DETTrevor DaleyAssists: Frans Nielsen · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–1
- P3 15:01SJSKevin LabancAssists: Brenden Dillon, Tomas Hertl · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. DET Frans Nielsen stopped
- 2. SJS Joe Pavelski scored
- 3. DET Gustav Nyquist scored
- 4. SJS Logan Couture scored
- 5. DET Andreas Athanasiou scored
- 6. SJS Kevin Labanc stopped
- 7. DET Henrik Zetterberg stopped
- 8. SJS Joonas Donskoi stopped
- 9. DET Dylan Larkin stopped
- 10. SJS Brent Burns stopped
- 11. DET Tomas Tatar scored
- 12. SJS Chris Tierney scored
- 13. DET Justin Abdelkader scored
- 14. SJS Tomas Hertl stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:49DETJonathan Ericsson: Holding2 min
- P1 12:37SJSKevin Labanc: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:58DETDylan Larkin: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:08SJSJoel Ward: Holding2 min
- OT 2:17SJSBrent Burns: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Tierney
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCouture – Hertl – Labanc6:01
xG 0.33–0.09 (78%)attempts 12–1goals 1–1
- Pavelski – Boedker – Tierney7:52
xG 0.38–0.25 (60%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Ward – Sorensen – Goodrow5:40
xG 0.13–0.05 (71%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Donskoi – Hertl – Karlsson4:42
xG 0.16–0.18 (48%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Ryan18:14
xG 1.05–0.48 (69%)attempts 25–14goals 0–0
- Dillon – DeMelo10:58
xG 0.25–0.58 (30%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Vlasic – Braun18:52
xG 0.54–0.94 (37%)attempts 14–21goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Nyquist – Mantha13:34
xG 0.72–0.11 (87%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Athanasiou – Bertuzzi – Larkin6:13
xG 0.31–0.30 (51%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Helm – Glendening6:23
xG 0.19–0.20 (48%)attempts 2–10goals 1–1
- Abdelkader – Tatar – Larkin5:15
xG 0.25–0.27 (48%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – DeKeyser13:51
xG 0.84–0.47 (64%)attempts 14–18goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Green16:26
xG 0.53–0.41 (56%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Daley – Ericsson15:08
xG 0.58–0.75 (44%)attempts 10–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).