Wed, Jan 31, 2018·Capital One Arena, Washington
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Washington Capitals 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 211 | 012 | 17 | 330 |
| WSH | 06 | 311 | 28 | 525 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:18PHINolan PatrickAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Jakub Voracek · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 7:50PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–0
- P2 2:14WSHChandler StephensonAssists: Lars Eller, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–1
- P2 3:01WSHChandler StephensonAssists: Madison Bowey · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 14:32WSHAndre BurakovskyPPAssists: Lars Eller · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–3
- P3 5:28WSHT.J. OshiePPGWGAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–4
- P3 9:06WSHDevante Smith-PellyAssists: Christian Djoos, Jay Beagle · Deflected, 0.10 xG2–5
- P3 10:40PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Ivan Provorov, Nolan Patrick · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 15:44PHIRobert Hagg: Holding2 min
- P2 9:48WSHJohn Carlson: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:24PHIAndrew MacDonald: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 4:16PHINolan Patrick: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:02PHIBrandon Manning: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:02WSHAlex Chiasson: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Couturier – Konecny15:16
xG 1.35–0.34 (80%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Voracek – Simmonds – Patrick12:18
xG 0.46–0.15 (75%)attempts 11–8goals 2–0
- Lehtera – Laughton – Goulbourne5:37
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Filppula – Weal – Raffl9:50
xG 0.03–0.92 (3%)attempts 5–14goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Provorov17:57
xG 1.28–0.19 (87%)attempts 17–10goals 2–0
- Gudas – Provorov2:50
xG 0.02–0.07 (23%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Manning – Gudas10:17
xG 0.27–0.35 (43%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson15:19
xG 0.86–0.47 (65%)attempts 17–10goals 0–2
- Eller – Connolly – Stephenson7:32
xG 0.50–0.39 (56%)attempts 9–5goals 2–1
- Beagle – Chiasson – Smith-Pelly5:34
xG 0.10–0.26 (27%)attempts 1–11goals 1–0
- Oshie – Backstrom – Burakovsky13:59
xG 0.33–0.58 (37%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Bowey11:59
xG 0.93–0.30 (75%)attempts 9–10goals 2–1
- Carlson – Djoos12:47
xG 0.47–0.78 (38%)attempts 11–14goals 1–1
- Niskanen – Orlov19:29
xG 0.22–0.57 (28%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).