Thu, Feb 1, 2018·TD Garden, Boston
St. Louis Blues 1, Boston Bruins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 014 | 06 | 113 | 133 |
| BOS | 19 | 022 | 215 | 346 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:32BOSDavid KrejciAssists: Jake DeBrusk, Ryan Spooner · Backhand, 0.27 xG0–1
- P3 9:05BOSPatrice BergeronPPGWGAssists: David Pastrnak, Ryan Spooner · Snap, 0.06 xG0–2
- P3 18:28STLJaden SchwartzAssists: Brayden Schenn, Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
- P3 19:59BOSDavid BackesENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.72 xG1–3
Penalties (4)
- P3 8:35STLVladimir Tarasenko: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:33STLVince Dunn: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:33BOSTim Schaller: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:20BOSZdeno Chara: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nash won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Tarasenko – Barbashev8:46
xG 0.24–0.05 (82%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Upshall – Brodziak – Jaskin6:54
xG 0.26–0.18 (59%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Steen – Stastny – Barbashev2:14
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Sobotka – Berglund – Tarasenko2:01
xG 0.03–0.12 (21%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Bortuzzo – Dunn10:43
xG 0.32–0.39 (45%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Bortuzzo2:01
xG 0.08–0.19 (30%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Parayko14:28
xG 0.53–0.65 (45%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKrejci – Spooner – DeBrusk12:31
xG 0.83–0.13 (87%)attempts 22–7goals 1–0
- Backes – Nash – Schaller3:02
xG 0.54–0.05 (91%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Kuraly – Schaller – Vatrano6:20
xG 0.27–0.11 (72%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Pastrnak – Heinen12:39
xG 0.76–0.80 (49%)attempts 16–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Carlo19:26
xG 1.42–0.92 (61%)attempts 24–24goals 0–0
- Miller – Grzelcyk10:37
xG 0.75–0.46 (62%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- McQuaid – Krug13:35
xG 0.64–0.46 (58%)attempts 18–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).