Thu, Feb 1, 2018·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Florida Panthers 4, Buffalo Sabres 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 316 | 07 | 19 | 432 |
| BUF | 111 | 112 | 09 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:02BUFRyan O'ReillyPPAssists: Sam Reinhart, Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 11:06FLAKeith YandlePPAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Vincent Trocheck · Slap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 14:29FLAMike MathesonPPAssists: Nick Bjugstad · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P1 18:11FLADenis MalginGWGAssists: Keith Yandle, Jonathan Huberdeau · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–1
- P2 0:32BUFZemgus GirgensonsSHAssists: Johan Larsson · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 17:36FLAColton SceviourAssists: Jared McCann, Keith Yandle · Backhand, 0.08 xG4–2
Penalties (19)
- P1 5:30FLAJared McCann: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 10:22BUFJohan Larsson: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P1 10:28BUFMarco Scandella: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 13:43BUFNick Baptiste: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 19:02BUFEvander Kane: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:42BUFVictor Antipin: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:53FLAMicheal Haley: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:27FLAAaron Ekblad: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:59BUFEvander Kane: Interference5 min
- P3 17:59BUFEvander Kane: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:59FLANick Bjugstad: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:59BUFEvander Kane: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:25FLAAlexander Petrovic: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:25BUFJake McCabe: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:25BUFJohan Larsson: Cross checking5 min
- P3 19:25FLAAlexander Petrovic: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:25BUFJohan Larsson: Match penatly 10 minutes10 min
- P3 19:57FLAMicheal Haley: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:57FLAMicheal Haley: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- Trocheck – Huberdeau – Malgin10:25
xG 0.58–0.55 (52%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Dadonov – Bjugstad – Barkov11:07
xG 0.28–0.26 (52%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Brickley – McCann – Mamin6:55
xG 0.06–0.19 (24%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Sceviour – Haley7:49
xG 0.20–0.58 (26%)attempts 3–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Yandle – Ekblad13:07
xG 0.30–0.32 (49%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Petrovic – Weegar9:59
xG 0.41–0.47 (47%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Pysyk – Matheson14:10
xG 0.45–0.86 (35%)attempts 10–23goals 1–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Kane – Eichel12:31
xG 0.82–0.32 (72%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
- Josefson – Nolan – Baptiste7:19
xG 0.15–0.07 (68%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Wilson – Reinhart10:16
xG 0.34–0.29 (54%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Pominville – Larsson – Girgensons5:57
xG 0.27–0.43 (39%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Nelson10:31
xG 0.44–0.18 (70%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- McCabe – Antipin11:39
xG 0.50–0.40 (55%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Scandella – Ristolainen14:16
xG 0.44–0.45 (49%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).