Thu, Feb 1, 2018·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Montréal Canadiens 0, Carolina Hurricanes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 07 | 012 | 08 | 027 |
| CAR | 07 | 111 | 112 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:43CARBrett PesceGWGAssists: Elias Lindholm, Marcus Kruger · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P3 14:51CARBrock McGinnAssists: Justin Williams, Victor Rask · Snap, 0.18 xG0–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 1:15MTLJoe Morrow: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:15MTLJordie Benn: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:49CARJustin Faulk: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:29MTLDaniel Carr: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Hudon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Byron – Pacioretty – Hudon12:24
xG 0.52–0.56 (49%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Froese – de la Rose – Carr9:16
xG 0.14–0.27 (35%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Deslauriers – Galchenyuk – Drouin11:08
xG 0.59–0.78 (43%)attempts 15–10goals 0–1
- Plekanec – Gallagher – Lehkonen12:03
xG 0.24–0.58 (30%)attempts 9–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Petry – Alzner14:43
xG 0.32–0.42 (43%)attempts 15–16goals 0–1
- Morrow – Jerabek16:46
xG 0.86–1.07 (45%)attempts 17–16goals 0–1
- Benn – Mete13:09
xG 0.30–0.68 (30%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Rask – McGinn10:07
xG 0.88–0.22 (80%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Stempniak – Skinner – Ryan11:52
xG 0.43–0.22 (66%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Staal – Teravainen – Aho10:20
xG 0.57–0.55 (51%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Kruger – Nordstrom – Lindholm7:54
xG 0.13–0.18 (41%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Fleury14:21
xG 0.97–0.50 (66%)attempts 17–15goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Hanifin15:16
xG 0.47–0.34 (58%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Slavin – Pesce16:22
xG 0.54–0.65 (45%)attempts 17–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).