Thu, Feb 1, 2018·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Anaheim Ducks 1, Ottawa Senators 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 014 | 04 | 113 | 00 | 131 |
| OTT | 011 | 06 | 114 | 11 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 4:37OTTBobby RyanPPAssists: Mike Hoffman, Erik Karlsson · Tip-in, 0.18 xG0–1
- P3 19:06ANARyan KeslerAssists: Rickard Rakell, Cam Fowler · Tip-in, 0.20 xG1–1
- OT 0:32OTTErik KarlssonPPGWGAssists: Matt Duchene, Mike Hoffman · Slap, 0.07 xG1–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:20OTTErik Karlsson: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:02OTTChristopher DiDomenico: Interference2 min
- P2 17:07ANARyan Kesler: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 2:38OTTRyan Dzingel: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:38ANAChris Wagner: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 3:13ANAJakob Silfverberg: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:08ANARyan Kesler: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 19:24ANAAdam Henrique: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smith won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Silfverberg – Rakell12:39
xG 0.91–0.37 (71%)attempts 26–7goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Rakell2:52
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Vermette – Perry – Wagner6:47
xG 0.10–0.05 (67%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Kesler – Cogliano – Brown7:32
xG 0.13–0.09 (58%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Lindholm14:19
xG 0.79–0.53 (60%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Bieksa – Fowler13:16
xG 0.69–0.45 (60%)attempts 26–7goals 0–0
- Fowler – Montour3:35
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBrassard – DiDomenico – Dzingel9:53
xG 0.79–0.21 (79%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Ryan – Hoffman – Duchene9:45
xG 0.43–0.31 (58%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Burrows – Thompson – Paajarvi9:29
xG 0.12–0.33 (26%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Smith – Pageau9:51
xG 0.40–0.69 (36%)attempts 5–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBorowiecki – Ceci2:59
xG 0.58–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Oduya – Karlsson10:13
xG 0.45–0.27 (63%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Chabot8:31
xG 0.18–0.11 (63%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).