Thu, Feb 1, 2018·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Colorado Avalanche 4, Edmonton Oilers 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 010 | 315 | 03 | 13 | 431 |
| EDM | 08 | 112 | 212 | 00 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:04COLNikita ZadorovUnassisted · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 7:52COLSamuel GirardPPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Gabriel Landeskog · Slap, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 9:11EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Michael Cammalleri · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–1
- P2 19:31COLBlake ComeauSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.21 xG3–1
- P3 6:52EDMDrake CaggiulaAssists: Ryan Strome, Matt Benning · Deflected, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 19:32EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Kris Russell · Slap, 0.28 xG3–3
- OT 2:28COLJ.T. CompherGWGAssists: Tyson Barrie, Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 7:07COLSamuel Girard: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:15EDMDarnell Nurse: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:02COLMikko Rantanen: Holding2 min
- P3 15:30COLBlake Comeau: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Strome won the faceoff against Compher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestBourque – Yakupov – Toninato7:27
xG 0.35–0.07 (83%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Wilson – Compher – Jost12:57
xG 0.29–0.25 (54%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Comeau – Soderberg – Nieto11:32
xG 0.15–0.40 (28%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
- Landeskog – Kerfoot – Rantanen11:24
xG 0.37–0.79 (32%)attempts 15–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Zadorov13:35
xG 0.27–0.15 (64%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Barrie – Zadorov4:37
xG 0.16–0.12 (57%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Barrie – Lindholm9:56
xG 0.45–0.46 (49%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Strome – Caggiula13:03
xG 0.65–0.22 (75%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Cammalleri – Draisaitl – McDavid12:27
xG 0.80–0.44 (64%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Lucic – Khaira – Puljujarvi11:26
xG 0.61–0.33 (65%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Letestu – Kassian – Slepyshev6:28
xG 0.00–0.28 (0%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKlefbom – Benning15:44
xG 1.56–0.40 (80%)attempts 28–10goals 2–0
- Russell – Klefbom2:07
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Davidson – Nurse15:30
xG 0.23–0.55 (30%)attempts 7–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).