Fri, Feb 2, 2018·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Detroit Red Wings 4, Carolina Hurricanes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 116 | 111 | 211 | 438 |
| CAR | 113 | 011 | 013 | 137 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:16CARSebastian AhoPPAssists: Justin Faulk, Teuvo Teravainen · Deflected, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 16:21DETDanny DeKeyserAssists: Darren Helm, Tomas Tatar · Slap, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 5:06DETTrevor DaleyGWGAssists: Darren Helm · Slap, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 7:45DETGustav NyquistAssists: Henrik Zetterberg · Snap, 0.12 xG3–1
- P3 13:48DETDarren HelmAssists: Luke Glendening · Slap, 0.22 xG4–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:19DETDylan Larkin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:14CARJordan Staal: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:17CARJeff Skinner: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:09CARDerek Ryan: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:42DETDarren Helm: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Nyquist – Mantha11:58
xG 1.19–0.51 (70%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Helm – Tatar9:08
xG 0.45–0.24 (65%)attempts 11–11goals 3–0
- Abdelkader – Glendening – Frk7:01
xG 0.42–0.26 (61%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Athanasiou – Bertuzzi – Larkin10:50
xG 0.50–0.51 (50%)attempts 9–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Green15:42
xG 1.17–0.77 (60%)attempts 18–15goals 1–0
- Jensen – DeKeyser14:29
xG 0.78–0.43 (65%)attempts 17–12goals 2–0
- Daley – Ericsson16:51
xG 0.63–0.77 (45%)attempts 14–27goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestKruger – Nordstrom – Lindholm4:08
xG 0.20–0.10 (68%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Williams – Rask – Teravainen2:36
xG 0.14–0.05 (74%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Staal – Teravainen – Aho8:44
xG 0.46–0.38 (55%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Stempniak – Skinner – Ryan11:38
xG 0.50–0.75 (40%)attempts 15–15goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Hanifin13:00
xG 0.66–0.40 (62%)attempts 17–13goals 0–2
- Slavin – Pesce16:47
xG 0.64–0.64 (50%)attempts 21–13goals 0–0
- Faulk – Fleury14:27
xG 0.22–1.05 (17%)attempts 9–20goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).