Fri, Feb 2, 2018·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Vegas Golden Knights 2, Minnesota Wild 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 08 | 15 | 111 | 224 |
| MIN | 219 | 211 | 16 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:05MINEric StaalPPAssists: Mike Reilly, Mathew Dumba · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 15:03MINCharlie CoyleAssists: Jonas Brodin, Joel Eriksson Ek · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
- P2 1:11MINTyler EnnisGWGAssists: Jonas Brodin · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–3
- P2 6:19VGKErik HaulaPPAssists: Colin Miller, David Perron · Deflected, 0.11 xG1–3
- P2 16:08MINJared SpurgeonPPAssists: Ryan Suter, Eric Staal · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–4
- P3 12:38VGKNate SchmidtPPAssists: David Perron, Erik Haula · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–4
- P3 18:31MINEric StaalENAssists: Mathew Dumba, Jonas Brodin · Wrist, 0.67 xG2–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:22VGKJason Garrison: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:19VGKShea Theodore: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:15MINNino Niederreiter: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:17VGKJames Neal: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 19:27VGKRyan Carpenter: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:27MINMathew Dumba: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:28VGKShea Theodore: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:34MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Elbowing2 min
- P3 12:01MINMike Reilly: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Karlsson won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestCarrier – Carpenter – Bellemare6:23
xG 0.16–0.05 (78%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Eakin – Lindberg – Tuch6:12
xG 0.12–0.21 (36%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Neal – Perron – Haula8:32
xG 0.10–0.37 (21%)attempts 4–9goals 0–2
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault12:56
xG 0.11–0.45 (19%)attempts 13–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Schmidt2:26
xG 0.12–0.01 (89%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Garrison – Miller12:16
xG 0.26–0.29 (47%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Engelland – Theodore14:10
xG 0.13–0.34 (27%)attempts 13–16goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestParise – Coyle – Eriksson Ek12:20
xG 0.93–0.33 (74%)attempts 16–14goals 1–0
- Koivu – Zucker – Granlund10:54
xG 0.45–0.15 (74%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Cullen – Winnik – Foligno9:16
xG 0.13–0.02 (85%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Staal – Ennis – Niederreiter9:38
xG 0.24–0.28 (46%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba14:41
xG 0.99–0.30 (77%)attempts 21–11goals 2–0
- Suter – Spurgeon17:55
xG 0.59–0.17 (78%)attempts 18–15goals 0–0
- Prosser – Reilly8:27
xG 0.15–0.19 (45%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).