Sat, Feb 3, 2018·Centre Bell, Montreal
Anaheim Ducks 2, Montréal Canadiens 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 016 | 220 | 09 | 245 |
| MTL | 39 | 111 | 19 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:10MTLLogan ShawAssists: Byron Froese · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
- P1 8:17MTLJoe MorrowPPAssists: Victor Mete, Nikita Scherbak · Slap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P1 10:13MTLDavid SchlemkoGWGAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, Brendan Gallagher · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–3
- P2 3:45MTLJeff PetryPPAssists: Max Pacioretty, Alex Galchenyuk · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–4
- P2 8:32ANACorey PerryPPAssists: Rickard Rakell, Cam Fowler · Tip-in, 0.19 xG1–4
- P2 12:15ANARickard RakellAssists: Nick Ritchie, Cam Fowler · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–4
- P3 15:46MTLJeff PetryPPAssists: Joe Morrow, Brendan Gallagher · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 6:32ANAKevin Bieksa: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 14:41ANARyan Getzlaf: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:55MTLDavid Schlemko: Interference2 min
- P2 2:40ANACorey Perry: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 6:42MTLNikita Scherbak: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 8:21MTLMax Pacioretty: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:57ANACorey Perry: Interference2 min
- P2 15:35MTLTomas Plekanec: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:04ANAAntoine Vermette: Interference2 min
- P3 15:29ANAHampus Lindholm: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:16ANARyan Getzlaf: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:16ANACorey Perry: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Gallagher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKesler – Cogliano – Brown2:32
xG 0.39–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Rakell – Kase4:16
xG 0.21–0.05 (81%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Silfverberg – Rakell3:19
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Kesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg5:50
xG 0.16–0.04 (81%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Montour12:19
xG 1.00–0.03 (97%)attempts 28–3goals 1–0
- Manson – Lindholm11:46
xG 0.20–0.28 (41%)attempts 12–7goals 0–2
- Bieksa – Fowler15:27
xG 0.68–0.84 (45%)attempts 25–13goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDeslauriers – Froese – Shaw7:28
xG 0.74–0.21 (78%)attempts 6–14goals 1–0
- Plekanec – Gallagher – Galchenyuk2:10
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Byron – Pacioretty – Scherbak4:04
xG 0.11–0.08 (56%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Gallagher – Lehkonen6:52
xG 0.05–0.03 (59%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchlemko – Mete9:37
xG 0.63–0.41 (61%)attempts 8–16goals 1–0
- Petry – Morrow2:01
xG 0.03–0.05 (34%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Petry – Alzner11:49
xG 0.38–0.46 (45%)attempts 7–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).