Sat, Feb 3, 2018·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Detroit Red Wings 2, Florida Panthers 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 010 | 19 | 19 | 228 |
| FLA | 110 | 19 | 114 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:14FLAAaron EkbladAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Keith Yandle · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 8:51DETDanny DeKeyserAssists: Frans Nielsen, Darren Helm · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 13:38FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, Nick Bjugstad · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 3:00DETDanny DeKeyserAssists: Darren Helm, Frans Nielsen · Slap, 0.39 xG2–2
- P3 19:51FLAJonathan HuberdeauGWGAssists: Keith Yandle, Aaron Ekblad · Slap, 0.41 xG2–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 7:28DETTrevor Daley: Holding2 min
- P1 9:10FLANick Bjugstad: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:20FLAVincent Trocheck: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:20DETJustin Abdelkader: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:02FLAMacKenzie Weegar: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:45DETJonathan Ericsson: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:08FLAAleksander Barkov: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:20DETNiklas Kronwall: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:40DETTyler Bertuzzi: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:40FLAMaxim Mamin: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:51DETNick Jensen: Game misconduct head coach0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Trocheck won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestAbdelkader – Glendening – Frk8:39
xG 0.78–0.38 (68%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Helm – Tatar12:00
xG 0.83–0.72 (54%)attempts 7–15goals 1–2
- Zetterberg – Nyquist – Mantha12:12
xG 0.53–0.72 (43%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
- Athanasiou – Bertuzzi – Larkin9:29
xG 0.24–0.65 (27%)attempts 5–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – DeKeyser14:50
xG 1.12–0.37 (75%)attempts 10–11goals 2–0
- Kronwall – Green14:40
xG 0.43–0.56 (43%)attempts 6–20goals 0–1
- Daley – Ericsson15:07
xG 1.03–1.28 (45%)attempts 16–21goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Bjugstad – Barkov10:31
xG 1.34–0.87 (61%)attempts 25–9goals 1–1
- Trocheck – Huberdeau – Malgin13:55
xG 0.92–0.65 (59%)attempts 16–8goals 2–0
- McGinn – McCann – Mamin8:28
xG 0.20–0.05 (80%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Sceviour – Haley6:48
xG 0.03–0.51 (5%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Ekblad15:50
xG 0.84–0.27 (76%)attempts 14–12goals 2–0
- Petrovic – Matheson2:12
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Pysyk – Matheson16:00
xG 1.25–1.31 (49%)attempts 27–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).