Sat, Feb 3, 2018·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, New York Islanders 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 126 | 214 | 09 | 349 |
| NYI | 112 | 116 | 210 | 438 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:12CBJJosh AndersonPPAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Jussi Jokinen · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–0
- P1 17:38NYINick LeddyPPAssists: John Tavares, Mathew Barzal · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 11:14NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Anthony Beauvillier, Ryan Pulock · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 12:36CBJCam AtkinsonAssists: Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 18:03CBJNick FolignoAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 2:49NYIJordan EberleAssists: Mathew Barzal, Casey Cizikas · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–3
- P3 5:14NYIBrock NelsonGWGAssists: Andrew Ladd, Ryan Pulock · Wrist, 0.35 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:43NYICasey Cizikas: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:54CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 12:56NYIBrock Nelson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 3:12CBJPierre-Luc Dubois: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:08CBJJosh Anderson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 10:08NYIJason Chimera: Cross checking2 min
- P3 13:28NYIScott Mayfield: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Dubois
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestAtkinson – Panarin – Dubois11:40
xG 1.10–0.24 (82%)attempts 19–7goals 1–0
- Jokinen – Calvert – Sedlak6:36
xG 0.60–0.22 (74%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Foligno – Bjorkstrand – Wennberg9:47
xG 0.88–0.90 (49%)attempts 14–15goals 1–1
- Dubinsky – Jenner – Anderson12:25
xG 0.61–0.68 (47%)attempts 15–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Werenski17:53
xG 1.58–1.06 (60%)attempts 26–18goals 1–1
- Savard – Kukan12:57
xG 0.91–0.97 (48%)attempts 16–17goals 1–1
- Johnson – Nutivaara14:27
xG 0.82–0.92 (47%)attempts 17–15goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Lee – Barzal13:00
xG 1.43–0.80 (64%)attempts 22–16goals 0–0
- Chimera – Cizikas – Fritz7:55
xG 0.07–0.30 (19%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Ladd – Clutterbuck – Nelson9:22
xG 0.25–0.71 (26%)attempts 6–17goals 0–1
- Bailey – Tavares – Beauvillier11:21
xG 0.33–1.34 (20%)attempts 11–19goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHickey – Pulock12:43
xG 0.98–0.75 (57%)attempts 18–15goals 2–1
- Mayfield – Pelech16:04
xG 1.30–1.31 (50%)attempts 18–22goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Leddy12:54
xG 0.25–0.79 (24%)attempts 9–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).