Sun, Feb 4, 2018·PNC Arena, Raleigh
San Jose Sharks 3, Carolina Hurricanes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 212 | 18 | 06 | 326 |
| CAR | 15 | 012 | 013 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:06SJSTimo MeierAssists: Joonas Donskoi, Brent Burns · Snap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 17:58CARSebastian AhoAssists: Jordan Staal · Snap, 0.16 xG1–1
- P1 19:24SJSChris TierneyGWGAssists: Melker Karlsson, Mikkel Boedker · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 2:03SJSBrent BurnsAssists: Joel Ward, Joakim Ryan · Slap, 0.01 xG3–1
Penalties (3)
- P2 7:32SJSBrenden Dillon: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:32CARBrock McGinn: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:32SJSBrenden Dillon: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hertl won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestWard – Goodrow – O'Regan7:13
xG 0.94–0.20 (82%)attempts 12–4goals 1–1
- Pavelski – Donskoi – Meier12:00
xG 0.61–0.21 (74%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Couture – Hertl – Labanc11:35
xG 0.34–0.41 (46%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Boedker – Tierney – Karlsson13:17
xG 0.36–0.55 (40%)attempts 7–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Ryan16:24
xG 1.20–0.22 (85%)attempts 18–11goals 3–0
- Dillon – DeMelo11:58
xG 0.30–0.24 (55%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Braun16:29
xG 0.37–0.78 (32%)attempts 11–16goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStempniak – Skinner – Ryan6:50
xG 0.25–0.10 (72%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Kruger – Nordstrom – Lindholm2:46
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Stempniak – Kruger – Nordstrom3:19
xG 0.01–0.02 (36%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Staal – Teravainen – Aho14:42
xG 0.68–0.78 (46%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Slavin19:03
xG 0.64–0.51 (56%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Hanifin12:32
xG 0.22–0.22 (49%)attempts 11–3goals 0–1
- van Riemsdyk – Fleury5:03
xG 0.10–0.11 (47%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).