Mon, Feb 5, 2018·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Anaheim Ducks 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 7
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 016 | 314 | 114 | 444 |
| TOR | 115 | 39 | 316 | 740 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:32TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Zach Hyman, William Nylander · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 0:43ANARyan GetzlafAssists: Rickard Rakell, Corey Perry · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 5:52TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Jake Gardiner · Snap, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 8:23ANARickard RakellAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 11:06ANAOndrej KasePPAssists: Corey Perry, Jakob Silfverberg · Wrist, 0.32 xG3–2
- P2 15:28TORMitch MarnerPPAssists: Nazem Kadri, James van Riemsdyk · Snap, 0.07 xG3–3
- P2 17:40TORLeo KomarovAssists: Jake Gardiner, Nazem Kadri · Snap, 0.01 xG3–4
- P3 2:07ANARickard RakellAssists: Corey Perry, Josh Manson · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–4
- P3 3:28TORWilliam NylanderGWGAssists: Jake Gardiner · Snap, 0.13 xG4–5
- P3 16:49TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Kasperi Kapanen · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–6
- P3 19:06TORZach HymanENAssists: Connor Brown, Auston Matthews · Snap, 0.71 xG4–7
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:37TORNikita Zaitsev: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:40ANAKevin Bieksa: Interference2 min
- P1 17:47TORTravis Dermott: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:10TORLeo Komarov: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:12ANANick Ritchie: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 19:25ANACam Fowler: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Rakell14:42
xG 2.40–0.71 (77%)attempts 27–10goals 3–0
- Vermette – Wagner – Brown6:15
xG 0.48–0.24 (66%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Henrique – Ritchie – Kase9:22
xG 0.56–0.74 (43%)attempts 18–11goals 0–1
- Kesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg10:28
xG 0.15–0.68 (18%)attempts 8–11goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Lindholm15:03
xG 2.38–0.72 (77%)attempts 37–12goals 3–1
- Bieksa – Fowler16:10
xG 0.91–0.68 (57%)attempts 18–14goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Manson2:25
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nylander – Matthews10:28
xG 0.80–0.42 (65%)attempts 14–12goals 3–0
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Brown9:46
xG 0.45–0.43 (51%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Moore – Komarov – Kapanen6:52
xG 0.29–0.52 (36%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Marleau – Kadri – Marner11:28
xG 0.71–1.91 (27%)attempts 10–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Dermott4:18
xG 0.42–0.03 (94%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Gardiner – Zaitsev10:55
xG 0.80–0.51 (61%)attempts 16–13goals 4–2
- Hainsey – Zaitsev4:55
xG 0.22–0.08 (73%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).