Mon, Feb 5, 2018·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Edmonton Oilers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 111 | 04 | 119 | 234 |
| EDM | 213 | 213 | 29 | 635 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:48EDMConnor McDavidPPAssists: Ryan Strome, Oscar Klefbom · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 9:42TBLAlex KillornAssists: Yanni Gourde · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 17:24EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Ryan Strome, Connor McDavid · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 2:33EDMConnor McDavidGWGAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Matt Benning · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–3
- P2 12:59EDMIiro PakarinenAssists: Anton Slepyshev, Mark Letestu · Snap, 0.07 xG1–4
- P3 1:54TBLYanni GourdePPAssists: Tyler Johnson · Slap, 0.55 xG2–4
- P3 6:55EDMConnor McDavidUnassisted · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–5
- P3 13:49EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Michael Cammalleri · Backhand, 0.18 xG2–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:21TBLNikita Kucherov: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 16:22TBLSteven Stamkos: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 19:48EDMLeon Draisaitl: Interference2 min
- P2 10:07TBLJake Dotchin: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:19TBLVladislav Namestnikov: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P2 16:30TBLVictor Hedman: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:30EDMLeon Draisaitl: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:48EDMRyan Strome: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 11:07EDMJujhar Khaira: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Peca won the faceoff against Khaira
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Conacher – Point3:59
xG 0.16–0.05 (74%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Johnson – Namestnikov – Point3:30
xG 0.05–0.15 (25%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Callahan – Peca4:34
xG 0.18–0.28 (39%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Kunitz – Stamkos – Kucherov4:15
xG 0.02–0.18 (8%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKoekkoek – Dotchin4:12
xG 0.35–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Coburn – Stralman2:05
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Hedman – Sergachev4:10
xG 0.06–0.07 (46%)attempts 5–1goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestCammalleri – Draisaitl – McDavid14:06
xG 1.04–0.27 (79%)attempts 11–20goals 3–0
- Maroon – Strome – Caggiula11:04
xG 0.51–0.40 (56%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Letestu – Pakarinen – Slepyshev7:20
xG 0.30–0.29 (51%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Lucic – Khaira – Puljujarvi12:35
xG 0.55–0.56 (50%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRussell – Nurse15:41
xG 0.94–0.56 (63%)attempts 12–20goals 2–1
- Sekera – Davidson14:02
xG 0.61–0.27 (69%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Klefbom – Benning15:25
xG 0.81–0.64 (56%)attempts 12–22goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).