Tue, Feb 6, 2018·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Anaheim Ducks 4, Buffalo Sabres 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 011 | 214 | 18 | 11 | 434 |
| BUF | 113 | 15 | 115 | 00 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:22BUFZemgus GirgensonsSHAssists: Casey Nelson · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
- P2 0:21ANARickard RakellPPAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Cam Fowler · Backhand, 0.24 xG1–1
- P2 17:18BUFJack EichelPPAssists: Sam Reinhart, Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–2
- P2 19:21ANAOndrej KaseAssists: Josh Manson, Nick Ritchie · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 11:30ANACorey PerryUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–2
- P3 19:45BUFRyan O'ReillyAssists: Jack Eichel, Sam Reinhart · Slap, 0.11 xG3–3
- OT 1:36ANAAdam HenriqueGWGAssists: Ondrej Kase, Brandon Montour · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:23BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Interference2 min
- P1 10:56ANARyan Kesler: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:03BUFEvan Rodrigues: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:42BUFKyle Okposo: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 12:28ANAKorbinian Holzer: Holding2 min
- P2 12:28BUFJustin Falk: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:10ANAJT Brown: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestHenrique – Ritchie – Kase10:26
xG 0.41–0.19 (69%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Grant – Wagner – Brown5:58
xG 0.14–0.01 (91%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Rakell12:14
xG 0.55–0.43 (56%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Kesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg9:03
xG 0.18–0.37 (33%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Lindholm17:07
xG 0.64–0.39 (62%)attempts 16–15goals 1–0
- Holzer – Montour6:27
xG 0.25–0.06 (80%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Fowler – Montour3:45
xG 0.27–0.19 (59%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGirgensons – Reinhart – Eichel12:14
xG 0.56–0.13 (81%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Josefson – Nolan6:34
xG 0.17–0.35 (32%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Pominville – Wilson – Rodrigues7:13
xG 0.06–0.25 (20%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
- Okposo – O'Reilly – Kane9:43
xG 0.27–0.55 (33%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFalk – McCabe4:15
xG 0.41–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Beaulieu – Nelson7:04
xG 0.34–0.27 (56%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Beaulieu – Ristolainen4:42
xG 0.09–0.05 (64%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).