Tue, Feb 6, 2018·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Washington Capitals 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 112 | 17 | 16 | 325 |
| CBJ | 111 | 017 | 111 | 239 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:58CBJDavid SavardAssists: Alexander Wennberg · Slap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 4:54WSHJohn CarlsonPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Slap, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 5:00WSHTom WilsonAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Christian Djoos · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 13:55CBJBrandon DubinskyAssists: Markus Nutivaara, Matt Calvert · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–2
- P3 19:17WSHNicklas BackstromGWGAssists: T.J. Oshie, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:38CBJMarkus Nutivaara: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 12:23CBJJosh Anderson: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:23WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:57WSHNicklas Backstrom: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 11:23WSHTom Wilson: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:49WSHJakub Vrana: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubinsky won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Backstrom – Wilson13:38
xG 0.53–0.23 (69%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Eller – Connolly – Burakovsky5:29
xG 0.14–0.26 (35%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Eller – Connolly – Stephenson3:10
xG 0.10–0.35 (22%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Beagle – Smith-Pelly – Stephenson8:00
xG 0.25–0.78 (24%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Orlov2:31
xG 0.28–0.17 (62%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Orpik – Bowey15:09
xG 0.38–0.37 (51%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Orlov17:23
xG 0.31–0.75 (29%)attempts 7–18goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Bjorkstrand – Wennberg8:21
xG 0.55–0.31 (64%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Atkinson – Panarin – Dubois11:43
xG 0.50–0.27 (65%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Calvert – Sedlak5:26
xG 0.24–0.06 (79%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Jenner – Anderson12:21
xG 0.21–0.67 (24%)attempts 10–16goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Nutivaara11:16
xG 0.81–0.11 (88%)attempts 12–2goals 1–0
- Kukan – Nutivaara2:28
xG 0.51–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Savard – Kukan10:52
xG 0.36–0.17 (69%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).