Tue, Feb 6, 2018·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
New Jersey Devils 3, Ottawa Senators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 111 | 114 | 18 | 333 |
| OTT | 316 | 213 | 03 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:57NJDTravis ZajacAssists: Stefan Noesen · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 13:35OTTMike HoffmanPPAssists: Matt Duchene, Erik Karlsson · Slap, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 14:33OTTChristopher DiDomenicoPPAssists: Cody Ceci, Ryan Dzingel · Slap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P1 18:58OTTMatt DucheneAssists: Mike Hoffman, Fredrik Claesson · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–3
- P2 8:43OTTColin WhiteGWGAssists: Thomas Chabot, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–4
- P2 10:54NJDTaylor HallPPAssists: Pavel Zacha, Kyle Palmieri · Slap, 0.05 xG2–4
- P2 19:12OTTZack SmithAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Alexandre Burrows · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–5
- P3 5:12NJDKyle PalmieriAssists: Pavel Zacha, Miles Wood · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 11:55NJDBlake Coleman: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 13:02NJDKyle Palmieri: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:18OTTMax McCormick: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:18NJDBen Lovejoy: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:18NJDBen Lovejoy: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:55OTTErik Karlsson: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:02OTTAlexandre Burrows: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:02OTTAlexandre Burrows: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:07OTTZack Smith: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:10OTTErik Karlsson: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:10NJDKyle Palmieri: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Wood – Zacha5:34
xG 0.34–0.18 (66%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Palmieri – Hall – Zacha2:35
xG 0.02–0.07 (23%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Boyle – Stafford – Wood2:34
xG 0.08–0.13 (37%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Zajac – Coleman – Noesen9:54
xG 0.38–0.49 (43%)attempts 8–15goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestButcher – Mueller3:10
xG 0.16–0.01 (92%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Lovejoy – Butcher3:24
xG 0.26–0.18 (59%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Greene – Vatanen6:33
xG 0.10–0.03 (78%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPyatt – Paajarvi – Pageau10:01
xG 0.65–0.12 (85%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Duchene – White10:26
xG 0.73–0.27 (73%)attempts 19–5goals 2–1
- DiDomenico – Smith – Dzingel2:17
xG 0.05–0.06 (45%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Burrows – Smith – Dzingel7:21
xG 0.17–0.19 (47%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Karlsson10:36
xG 0.69–0.11 (86%)attempts 18–8goals 1–0
- Borowiecki – Ceci3:02
xG 0.25–0.05 (84%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Ceci – Chabot5:43
xG 0.40–0.21 (65%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).