Tue, Feb 6, 2018·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Boston Bruins 3, Detroit Red Wings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 013 | 211 | 17 | 331 |
| DET | 07 | 15 | 116 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:08DETMartin FrkPPAssists: Niklas Kronwall, Henrik Zetterberg · Slap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 12:11BOSSean KuralyAssists: David Pastrnak, Danton Heinen · Snap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 14:17BOSDavid KrejciAssists: Jake DeBrusk, Ryan Spooner · Snap, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 8:21BOSDanton HeinenGWGAssists: Sean Kuraly, Austin Czarnik · Snap, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 18:36DETFrans NielsenAssists: Martin Frk, Dylan Larkin · Wrist, 0.35 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 16:08DETNiklas Kronwall: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:20BOSCharlie McAvoy: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:37DETJustin Abdelkader: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:37BOSPatrice Bergeron: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:02BOSZdeno Chara: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:35DETDarren Helm: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKrejci – Spooner – DeBrusk10:24
xG 0.38–0.06 (85%)attempts 14–2goals 1–0
- Backes – Nash – Schaller11:29
xG 0.33–0.13 (72%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Pastrnak – Heinen11:05
xG 0.31–0.16 (66%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Kuraly – Vatrano – Czarnik4:53
xG 0.18–0.12 (58%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcQuaid – Grzelcyk12:45
xG 0.59–0.27 (69%)attempts 14–13goals 2–0
- Chara – McAvoy15:34
xG 0.47–0.23 (67%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Krug – Carlo13:32
xG 0.42–0.19 (69%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Zetterberg – Nyquist – Mantha11:33
xG 0.27–0.36 (43%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Helm – Glendening8:08
xG 0.16–0.26 (39%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Abdelkader – Tatar – Larkin10:20
xG 0.27–0.37 (42%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Frk – Athanasiou – Bertuzzi5:03
xG 0.02–0.23 (9%)attempts 2–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Daley – Ericsson15:41
xG 0.37–0.48 (44%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Green14:47
xG 0.14–0.34 (29%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Jensen – DeKeyser13:14
xG 0.17–0.55 (23%)attempts 9–20goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).