Tue, Feb 6, 2018·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Minnesota Wild 6, St. Louis Blues 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 38 | 29 | 13 | 620 |
| STL | 110 | 08 | 119 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:45STLJaden SchwartzAssists: Colton Parayko, Jay Bouwmeester · Tip-in, 0.26 xG0–1
- P1 2:02MINNino NiederreiterAssists: Gustav Olofsson, Eric Staal · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- P1 16:53MINMarcus FolignoAssists: Daniel Winnik · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–1
- P1 18:07MINMikko KoivuPPGWGAssists: Mikael Granlund, Ryan Suter · Backhand, 0.07 xG3–1
- P2 9:45MINJason ZuckerAssists: Mikael Granlund · Backhand, 0.09 xG4–1
- P2 16:19MINMathew DumbaAssists: Jason Zucker, Mikko Koivu · Slap, 0.03 xG5–1
- P3 5:05MINEric StaalPPAssists: Zach Parise, Jared Spurgeon · Wrist, 0.13 xG6–1
- P3 12:36STLDmitrij JaskinAssists: Alexander Steen, Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.12 xG6–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 17:44STLKyle Brodziak: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 6:22MINJason Zucker: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:13STLVladimir Sobotka: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:03STLDmitrij Jaskin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:03STLJoel Edmundson: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:03MINMarcus Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:24MINCharlie Coyle: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:45MINMikko Koivu: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cullen won the faceoff against Schenn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Zucker – Granlund11:11
xG 0.41–0.16 (72%)attempts 9–5goals 2–0
- Staal – Ennis – Niederreiter10:50
xG 0.51–0.28 (64%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Winnik – Foligno – Eriksson Ek9:39
xG 0.31–0.60 (34%)attempts 3–16goals 1–1
- Cullen – Parise – Coyle11:41
xG 0.40–0.91 (30%)attempts 10–23goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba8:00
xG 0.66–0.07 (91%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Prosser – Olofsson7:48
xG 0.31–0.35 (47%)attempts 4–10goals 1–0
- Suter – Spurgeon18:26
xG 0.78–0.87 (47%)attempts 17–23goals 1–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Stastny – Jaskin2:08
xG 0.26–0.09 (74%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Upshall – Brodziak – Berglund2:01
xG 0.08–0.04 (63%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Schenn – Tarasenko – Schwartz12:21
xG 0.48–0.46 (51%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
- Steen – Stastny – Sobotka10:34
xG 0.26–0.32 (45%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestParayko – Dunn3:16
xG 0.47–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 1–0
- Pietrangelo – Parayko2:10
xG 0.28–0.01 (96%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Edmundson4:13
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).