Wed, Feb 7, 2018·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Nashville Predators 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 3 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 08 | 119 | 116 | 03 | 1 | 246 |
| TOR | 111 | 111 | 06 | 04 | 2 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:06TORJames van RiemsdykAssists: Connor Brown, Travis Dermott · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 9:38TORKasperi KapanenSHAssists: Dominic Moore, Ron Hainsey · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–2
- P2 18:10NSHColton SissonsAssists: Pontus Aberg, Ryan Ellis · Snap, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 0:25NSHViktor ArvidssonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. TOR Auston Matthews stopped
- 2. NSH Kyle Turris stopped
- 3. TOR William Nylander stopped
- 4. NSH Kevin Fiala stopped
- 5. TOR Tyler Bozak scored
- 6. NSH Ryan Ellis scored
- 7. TOR Mitch Marner stopped
- 8. NSH Craig Smith stopped
- 9. TOR Patrick Marleau stopped
- 10. NSH Roman Josi stopped
- 11. TOR Connor Brown stopped
- 12. NSH Ryan Johansen stopped
- 13. TOR James van Riemsdyk scored
- 14. NSH Viktor Arvidsson stopped
Penalties (4)
- P1 0:49NSHCalle Jarnkrok: Holding2 min
- P2 8:21TORConnor Brown: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:04NSHMiikka Salomaki: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:01TORDominic Moore: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Nylander
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Bonino – Jarnkrok7:35
xG 0.52–0.23 (69%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Salomaki – Aberg – Sissons2:12
xG 0.29–0.03 (90%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Smith – Johansen – Arvidsson6:13
xG 0.29–0.07 (80%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Johansen – Aberg – Arvidsson6:42
xG 0.42–0.27 (61%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEmelin – Weber5:38
xG 0.61–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 0–0
- Josi – Ellis16:29
xG 0.93–0.52 (64%)attempts 22–13goals 1–0
- Weber – Ekholm5:50
xG 0.51–0.38 (57%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMoore – Komarov – Kapanen7:09
xG 0.32–0.24 (57%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Brown11:23
xG 0.56–0.64 (47%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Marleau – Kadri – Marner12:26
xG 0.19–0.57 (25%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Hyman – Nylander – Matthews11:11
xG 0.33–0.93 (26%)attempts 6–19goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Polak – Dermott11:49
xG 0.50–0.48 (51%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Gardiner – Zaitsev16:43
xG 0.42–1.12 (27%)attempts 6–25goals 0–1
- Hainsey – Rielly16:00
xG 0.79–1.83 (30%)attempts 15–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).