Thu, Feb 8, 2018·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Nashville Predators 3, Ottawa Senators 4 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 210 | 04 | 121 | 03 | 338 |
| OTT | 18 | 217 | 07 | 14 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:34NSHP.K. SubbanUnassisted · Deflected, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 8:00OTTChristopher DiDomenicoAssists: Ryan Dzingel, Zack Smith · Snap, 0.14 xG1–1
- P1 18:05NSHCalle JarnkrokAssists: Nick Bonino, Scott Hartnell · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 4:08OTTMax McCormickAssists: Ryan Dzingel, Mark Borowiecki · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- P2 11:59OTTMagnus PaajarviAssists: Erik Karlsson · Backhand, 0.25 xG2–3
- P3 15:42NSHP.K. SubbanAssists: Scott Hartnell, Roman Josi · Slap, 0.07 xG3–3
- OT 3:01OTTMike HoffmanGWGAssists: Thomas Chabot, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:26OTTDion Phaneuf: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:26NSHScott Hartnell: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:09OTTJean-Gabriel Pageau: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:22NSHColton Sissons: Holding2 min
- P2 7:20NSHKyle Turris: Holding2 min
- P3 7:09OTTColin White: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Turris won the faceoff against Smith
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Turris – Watson3:06
xG 0.32–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–0goals 1–0
- Turris – Smith – Fiala7:01
xG 0.40–0.19 (68%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Smith – Johansen – Arvidsson4:57
xG 0.26–0.08 (77%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Bonino – Jarnkrok – Fiala3:02
xG 0.19–0.12 (60%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Ekholm10:44
xG 0.58–0.34 (63%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Emelin – Subban6:29
xG 0.27–0.22 (55%)attempts 8–6goals 1–1
- Emelin – Weber6:58
xG 0.23–0.19 (55%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPyatt – Paajarvi – Pageau11:30
xG 0.66–0.30 (69%)attempts 14–15goals 1–0
- DiDomenico – Smith – Dzingel12:39
xG 0.50–0.62 (45%)attempts 13–15goals 1–3
- Hoffman – Duchene – White13:45
xG 0.22–0.66 (25%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Karlsson13:11
xG 0.72–0.38 (66%)attempts 17–18goals 1–0
- Phaneuf – Borowiecki9:26
xG 0.35–0.26 (57%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Borowiecki – Claesson3:28
xG 0.03–0.02 (59%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).