Thu, Feb 8, 2018·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Colorado Avalanche 1, St. Louis Blues 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 08 | 17 | 09 | 124 |
| STL | 113 | 411 | 17 | 631 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:41STLBrayden SchennPPAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Vince Dunn · Wrist, 0.29 xG0–1
- P2 2:50COLGabriel BourqueUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 4:17STLIvan BarbashevGWGAssists: Colton Parayko, Scottie Upshall · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 5:05STLBrayden SchennAssists: Patrik Berglund · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–3
- P2 7:38STLKyle BrodziakAssists: Alexander Steen, Vince Dunn · Snap, 0.06 xG1–4
- P2 15:01STLAlex PietrangeloAssists: Vince Dunn, Paul Stastny · Slap, 0.04 xG1–5
- P3 6:00STLPaul StastnyAssists: Jay Bouwmeester, Carl Gunnarsson · Tip-in, 0.32 xG1–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:03STLBrayden Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:03COLGabriel Landeskog: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:05COLDominic Toninato: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 10:10STLVladimir Tarasenko: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:00STLTage Thompson: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:45STLAlex Pietrangelo: Holding2 min
- P3 6:20STLJay Bouwmeester: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:50COLSamuel Girard: Interference2 min
- P3 16:48STLCarl Gunnarsson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Berglund won the faceoff against Kerfoot
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestBourque – Yakupov – Toninato3:58
xG 0.25–0.08 (75%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Yakupov – Compher – Jost2:04
xG 0.05–0.08 (35%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Landeskog – Kerfoot – Rantanen9:18
xG 0.19–0.26 (42%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Wilson – Compher – Jost7:39
xG 0.35–0.49 (42%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestNemeth – Girard8:44
xG 0.49–0.26 (65%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
- Johnson – Zadorov10:39
xG 0.60–0.48 (56%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Zadorov – Lindholm4:52
xG 0.13–0.24 (36%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Stastny – Tarasenko10:33
xG 1.01–0.61 (63%)attempts 18–12goals 1–0
- Berglund – Schenn – Schwartz10:24
xG 0.35–0.11 (77%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Upshall – Brodziak – Barbashev7:12
xG 0.14–0.17 (45%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Sobotka – Jaskin – Thompson8:27
xG 0.28–0.56 (34%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Dunn5:12
xG 0.45–0.10 (81%)attempts 11–2goals 1–0
- Bouwmeester – Gunnarsson3:31
xG 0.39–0.08 (84%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Bouwmeester – Parayko10:52
xG 0.55–0.37 (59%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).