Thu, Feb 8, 2018·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Vegas Golden Knights 5, San Jose Sharks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 14 | 117 | 312 | 533 |
| SJS | 116 | 19 | 113 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:40SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Brent Burns, Timo Meier · Deflected, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 14:00VGKErik HaulaAssists: David Perron, Colin Miller · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–1
- P2 0:37VGKWilliam KarlssonAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Reilly Smith · Slap, 0.44 xG2–1
- P2 11:47SJSTimo MeierPPAssists: Brent Burns, Chris Tierney · Deflected, 0.44 xG2–2
- P3 7:45SJSJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Brent Burns, Logan Couture · Snap, 0.21 xG2–3
- P3 9:36VGKBrayden McNabbAssists: Oscar Lindberg, Cody Eakin · Snap, 0.07 xG3–3
- P3 15:10VGKJames NealGWGAssists: David Perron, Colin Miller · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–3
- P3 18:39VGKJonathan MarchessaultENAssists: Reilly Smith, Nate Schmidt · Wrist, 0.70 xG5–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 9:19VGKShea Theodore: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:10VGKJonathan Marchessault: Holding2 min
- P2 5:02SJSKevin Labanc: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 10:13VGKCody Eakin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:46SJSMelker Karlsson: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:09SJSMikkel Boedker: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:47VGKAlex Tuch: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:11SJSChris Tierney: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:47SJSDylan DeMelo: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hertl won the faceoff against Marchessault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Karlsson – Marchessault11:04
xG 1.05–0.47 (69%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Neal – Perron – Haula12:49
xG 1.03–0.51 (67%)attempts 19–11goals 2–0
- Eakin – Lindberg – Leipsic9:37
xG 0.39–0.40 (49%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Carpenter – Bellemare – Tuch8:24
xG 0.13–0.18 (42%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Theodore11:39
xG 0.68–0.18 (79%)attempts 19–12goals 0–1
- McNabb – Schmidt14:49
xG 1.12–0.76 (60%)attempts 9–13goals 2–0
- Miller – Schmidt2:23
xG 0.29–0.05 (84%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Donskoi – Meier8:44
xG 0.85–0.46 (65%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Ward – Goodrow – O'Regan3:45
xG 0.13–0.02 (88%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Couture – Hertl – Labanc10:39
xG 0.05–0.64 (7%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Boedker – Tierney – Karlsson10:56
xG 0.08–0.85 (8%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Dillon – DeMelo11:31
xG 0.15–0.45 (25%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Burns – Ryan13:08
xG 0.29–0.69 (30%)attempts 11–13goals 1–2
- Vlasic – Braun14:45
xG 0.50–1.39 (27%)attempts 10–20goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).