Fri, Feb 9, 2018·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Vancouver Canucks 1, Carolina Hurricanes 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 06 | 112 | 04 | 122 |
| CAR | 310 | 09 | 114 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:14CARBrett PesceAssists: Jordan Staal, Sebastian Aho · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 14:43CARPhillip Di GiuseppeGWGAssists: Elias Lindholm, Noah Hanifin · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–2
- P1 19:04CARSebastian AhoAssists: Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–3
- P2 3:30VANMichael Del ZottoAssists: Alex Biega, Sven Baertschi · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–3
- P3 7:27CARJustin WilliamsAssists: Jeff Skinner · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 11:28CARJustin Williams: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 11:54VANAlexander Edler: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 19:55VANMichael Del Zotto: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:55CARJeff Skinner: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:25VANErik Gudbranson: Interference2 min
- P2 15:41VANBo Horvat: Holding2 min
- P3 4:23CARKlas Dahlbeck: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:23VANDarren Archibald: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:40CARNoah Hanifin: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Edler won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Eriksson2:03
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Vanek6:15
xG 0.14–0.04 (75%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Dowd – Boucher – Baertschi2:43
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Virtanen2:06
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Gudbranson3:51
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Biega – Hutton3:26
xG 0.15–0.06 (70%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Biega – Del Zotto2:04
xG 0.05–0.07 (43%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStempniak – Nordstrom – Rask3:49
xG 0.42–0.09 (82%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Williams – McGinn – Ryan4:18
xG 0.26–0.05 (83%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Staal – Teravainen – Aho10:22
xG 0.34–0.23 (59%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Skinner – Di Giuseppe – Lindholm10:08
xG 0.25–0.23 (52%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Hanifin13:07
xG 0.66–0.19 (77%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Slavin – Pesce18:00
xG 0.65–0.44 (60%)attempts 17–14goals 2–0
- Faulk – Dahlbeck11:52
xG 0.34–0.29 (54%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).