Fri, Feb 9, 2018·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Dallas Stars 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 213 | 07 | 115 | 02 | 0 | 337 |
| DAL | 19 | 012 | 210 | 05 | 1 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:07PITRiley SheahanAssists: Zachary Aston-Reese, Ian Cole · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 10:54PITCarl HagelinSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.00 xG2–0
- P1 17:57DALTyler SeguinAssists: Jamie Benn, Dillon Heatherington · Slap, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 2:46DALJohn KlingbergAssists: Alexander Radulov, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 6:47DALDan HamhuisAssists: Greg Pateryn, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–3
- P3 18:47PITJustin SchultzAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. DAL Alexander Radulov stopped
- 2. PIT Evgeni Malkin stopped
- 3. DAL Tyler Seguin scored
- 4. PIT Sidney Crosby stopped
- 5. DAL Jason Spezza stopped
- 6. PIT Phil Kessel stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:43DALEsa Lindell: High sticking2 min
- P1 2:30PITOlli Maatta: Interference2 min
- P1 6:45PITRiley Sheahan: Slashing2 min
- P1 9:29DALAntoine Roussel: Cross checking2 min
- P1 9:29PITEvgeni Malkin: Cross checking2 min
- P1 9:43PITBrian Dumoulin: High sticking2 min
- P1 12:17DALAntoine Roussel: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Kessel – Hagelin11:59
xG 0.46–0.18 (72%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Sheahan – Sheary – Aston-Reese9:11
xG 0.32–0.13 (72%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Malkin – Reaves – Kessel2:04
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel13:02
xG 0.78–0.84 (48%)attempts 20–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Oleksiak2:24
xG 0.43–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Oleksiak – Maatta3:41
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Cole – Oleksiak9:42
xG 0.12–0.11 (52%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRadulov – Benn – Seguin13:05
xG 0.91–0.63 (59%)attempts 18–20goals 3–0
- Shore – Janmark – Dickinson3:59
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Spezza – Ritchie – Elie4:08
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Spezza – Shore – Janmark4:46
xG 0.15–0.23 (40%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Pateryn17:54
xG 0.89–0.56 (61%)attempts 19–28goals 1–0
- Johns – Heatherington10:23
xG 0.22–0.26 (45%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Klingberg – Lindell17:11
xG 0.51–0.63 (45%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).