Fri, Feb 9, 2018·Honda Center, Anaheim
Edmonton Oilers 2, Anaheim Ducks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 014 | 112 | 16 | 232 |
| ANA | 111 | 113 | 110 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:28ANAHampus LindholmUnassisted · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 15:50ANACorey PerryAssists: Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–2
- P2 16:58EDMAnton SlepyshevUnassisted · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 3:04ANARyan KeslerGWGAssists: Hampus Lindholm, Andrew Cogliano · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 14:55EDMKris RussellAssists: Connor McDavid, Patrick Maroon · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:51EDMPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:51ANAKevin Bieksa: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:16ANAJosh Manson: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:38ANAAndrew Cogliano: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:36EDMJesse Puljujarvi: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:29EDMMilan Lucic: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:16ANARickard Rakell: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Draisaitl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestLetestu – Pakarinen – Slepyshev7:52
xG 0.56–0.13 (81%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Lucic – Draisaitl – Caggiula6:05
xG 0.26–0.19 (58%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Maroon – McDavid – Puljujarvi11:11
xG 0.88–0.85 (51%)attempts 13–13goals 0–2
- Lucic – Slepyshev – Draisaitl2:33
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRussell – Klefbom12:07
xG 0.89–0.62 (59%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Klefbom – Benning5:46
xG 0.47–0.23 (67%)attempts 10–2goals 1–1
- Davidson – Benning3:58
xG 0.17–0.00 (98%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg9:47
xG 0.90–0.57 (61%)attempts 12–13goals 2–1
- Henrique – Ritchie – Kase11:20
xG 0.54–0.53 (51%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Rakell14:46
xG 0.80–0.79 (50%)attempts 15–15goals 1–0
- Vermette – Wagner – Brown6:33
xG 0.13–0.54 (19%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Lindholm15:54
xG 1.32–0.89 (60%)attempts 20–15goals 2–1
- Bieksa – Fowler13:48
xG 0.56–0.48 (54%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
- Beauchemin – Montour11:57
xG 0.61–0.85 (42%)attempts 13–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).