Sat, Feb 10, 2018·Centre Bell, Montreal
Nashville Predators 3, Montréal Canadiens 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 05 | 112 | 113 | 02 | 1 | 332 |
| MTL | 09 | 117 | 113 | 010 | 0 | 249 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:35MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Artturi Lehkonen · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 16:22NSHScott HartnellAssists: Nick Bonino · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P3 12:19NSHKevin FialaAssists: Ryan Johansen, Viktor Arvidsson · Backhand, 0.17 xG2–1
- P3 18:46MTLJonathan DrouinAssists: Jeff Petry, Artturi Lehkonen · Slap, 0.07 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. MTL Paul Byron stopped
- 2. NSH Ryan Ellis scored
- 3. MTL Jonathan Drouin stopped
- 4. NSH Filip Forsberg stopped
- 5. MTL Max Pacioretty stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:21NSHFilip Forsberg: Holding2 min
- P1 14:50MTLKarl Alzner: Interference2 min
- P1 17:37NSHAlexei Emelin: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:17MTLNikita Scherbak: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 18:25NSHRyan Johansen: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:25NSHScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:25MTLDavid Schlemko: Cross checking2 min
- P3 8:12MTLArtturi Lehkonen: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Froese won the faceoff against Bonino
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestTurris – Smith – Fiala4:15
xG 0.32–0.04 (89%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Smith – Johansen – Arvidsson5:50
xG 0.35–0.20 (64%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Forsberg – Fiala2:26
xG 0.12–0.11 (52%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Watson – Salomaki – Sissons4:03
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Ellis16:35
xG 1.00–0.83 (55%)attempts 24–22goals 2–0
- Emelin – Subban2:28
xG 0.02–0.03 (33%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Emelin – Weber6:43
xG 0.27–0.32 (46%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGalchenyuk – Drouin – Scherbak10:43
xG 0.94–0.25 (79%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Froese – Shaw7:33
xG 0.62–0.19 (77%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Gallagher – Lehkonen10:32
xG 0.52–0.40 (56%)attempts 16–11goals 1–1
- Byron – Pacioretty – Hudon9:16
xG 0.20–0.94 (17%)attempts 6–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchlemko – Mete10:16
xG 0.85–0.51 (63%)attempts 11–11goals 1–1
- Petry – Alzner12:32
xG 0.45–0.24 (65%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Morrow – Mete2:02
xG 0.29–0.10 (74%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).