Sat, Feb 10, 2018·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Los Angeles Kings 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 118 | 09 | 220 | 347 |
| TBL | 210 | 214 | 04 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:05TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Yanni Gourde, Tyler Johnson · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 5:02LAKJonny BrodzinskiAssists: Andy Andreoff, Nicholas Shore · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 9:45TBLAlex KillornAssists: Steven Stamkos, Braydon Coburn · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 3:12TBLCedric PaquetteAssists: Ryan Callahan · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–3
- P2 14:43TBLNikita KucherovPPGWGAssists: Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–4
- P3 3:17LAKKyle CliffordAssists: Anze Kopitar, Derek Forbort · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–4
- P3 13:05LAKChristian FolinAssists: Andy Andreoff, Nicholas Shore · Slap, 0.02 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:38TBLAlex Killorn: Interference2 min
- P2 5:08LAKMarian Gaborik: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:22TBLCory Conacher: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:22LAKJonathan Quick: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:28LAKTyler Toffoli: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:30LAKDustin Brown: Kneeing5 min · PPG
- P2 14:30LAKDustin Brown: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 6:34TBLMikhail Sergachev: Boarding2 min
- P3 10:32TBLCory Conacher: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestMitchell – Andreoff – Shore3:02
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
- Gaborik – Mitchell – Clifford5:23
xG 0.19–0.15 (56%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Toffoli – Iafallo8:56
xG 0.26–0.29 (47%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Andreoff – Shore – Brodzinski6:41
xG 0.59–0.71 (45%)attempts 10–10goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – LaDue8:53
xG 0.59–0.21 (73%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Doughty – Forbort12:27
xG 0.53–0.16 (77%)attempts 13–6goals 2–0
- Forbort – Folin2:51
xG 0.16–0.10 (62%)attempts 6–1goals 1–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Callahan – Paquette7:03
xG 0.65–0.45 (59%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Conacher – Namestnikov – Erne6:52
xG 0.25–0.16 (61%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Killorn – Kucherov – Point10:31
xG 0.52–0.55 (49%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Johnson – Gourde8:17
xG 0.18–0.41 (31%)attempts 7–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Sustr9:42
xG 0.89–0.62 (59%)attempts 16–12goals 2–1
- Girardi – Sergachev13:58
xG 0.39–0.53 (42%)attempts 14–14goals 1–1
- Stralman – Hedman12:38
xG 0.45–0.69 (40%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).