Sat, Feb 10, 2018·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Edmonton Oilers 4, San Jose Sharks 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 09 | 39 | 113 | 431 |
| SJS | 214 | 15 | 311 | 630 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:15SJSJoakim RyanAssists: Joonas Donskoi, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 7:21SJSJoe PavelskiUnassisted · Snap, 0.16 xG0–2
- P2 2:30SJSBarclay GoodrowAssists: Jannik Hansen · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–3
- P2 8:49EDMZack KassianUnassisted · Slap, 0.46 xG1–3
- P2 14:20EDMZack KassianAssists: Yohann Auvitu, Kris Russell · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–3
- P2 18:02EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Oscar Klefbom, Michael Cammalleri · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–3
- P3 1:21EDMBrandon DavidsonAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Michael Cammalleri · Slap, 0.18 xG4–3
- P3 3:41SJSTomas HertlAssists: Logan Couture, Kevin Labanc · Backhand, 0.13 xG4–4
- P3 17:33SJSJoakim RyanGWGAssists: Timo Meier, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.27 xG4–5
- P3 18:48SJSJoe PavelskiENAssists: Chris Tierney, Melker Karlsson · Wrist, 0.65 xG4–6
Penalties (4)
- P1 3:19SJSTimo Meier: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:46EDMJujhar Khaira: Holding2 min
- P3 12:22SJSLogan Couture: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 14:15SJSBrent Burns: Broken stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hertl won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestLucic – Slepyshev – Draisaitl6:16
xG 0.89–0.29 (75%)attempts 7–7goals 0–2
- Cammalleri – Lucic – Draisaitl7:33
xG 0.57–0.48 (54%)attempts 13–5goals 1–1
- Letestu – Kassian – Pakarinen9:45
xG 0.26–0.24 (52%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Strome – Khaira – McDavid2:05
xG 0.07–0.09 (45%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBenning – Auvitu11:51
xG 1.26–0.51 (71%)attempts 19–10goals 1–1
- Russell – Nurse2:35
xG 0.35–0.02 (94%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Davidson – Nurse15:38
xG 0.74–0.56 (57%)attempts 15–16goals 0–2
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCouture – Hertl – Labanc12:22
xG 0.71–0.18 (80%)attempts 24–7goals 1–1
- Pavelski – Donskoi – Meier13:04
xG 0.89–0.70 (56%)attempts 17–10goals 3–1
- Hansen – Goodrow – O'Regan9:28
xG 0.42–0.30 (58%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Boedker – Tierney – Karlsson11:18
xG 0.11–1.13 (9%)attempts 5–21goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Braun18:09
xG 0.84–0.22 (79%)attempts 23–12goals 1–0
- Burns – Ryan17:46
xG 0.97–1.69 (37%)attempts 19–20goals 3–1
- Dillon – DeMelo13:35
xG 0.46–1.32 (26%)attempts 13–17goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).