Sun, Feb 11, 2018·Capital One Arena, Washington
Detroit Red Wings 5, Washington Capitals 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 16 | 317 | 05 | 11 | 529 |
| WSH | 18 | 02 | 315 | 02 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:20WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: John Carlson, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 13:37DETJustin AbdelkaderAssists: Frans Nielsen · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 16:53DETLuke GlendeningAssists: Darren Helm, Frans Nielsen · Wrist, 0.30 xG2–1
- P2 17:02DETAnthony ManthaAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Nick Jensen · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–1
- P2 19:49DETTomas TatarAssists: Dylan Larkin, Andreas Athanasiou · Snap, 0.06 xG4–1
- P3 2:32WSHBrett ConnollyAssists: Jay Beagle · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–2
- P3 14:02WSHDmitry OrlovAssists: Devante Smith-Pelly, Jay Beagle · Slap, 0.11 xG4–3
- P3 19:43WSHNicklas BackstromPPAssists: John Carlson, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–4
- OT 2:47DETTomas TatarGWGAssists: Dylan Larkin, Nick Jensen · Backhand, 0.19 xG5–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:21DETLuke Glendening: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 15:49DETJustin Abdelkader: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:03WSHLars Eller: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 14:04WSHBrooks Orpik: Interference2 min
- P3 7:24WSHTom Wilson: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 18:45DETDanny DeKeyser: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Helm – Glendening4:07
xG 0.44–0.03 (93%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Tatar – Athanasiou – Larkin13:06
xG 0.84–0.63 (57%)attempts 20–12goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Abdelkader – Helm8:05
xG 0.32–0.14 (69%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Zetterberg – Nyquist – Mantha14:39
xG 0.52–0.53 (50%)attempts 10–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Ericsson16:24
xG 1.17–0.66 (64%)attempts 16–16goals 2–1
- Jensen – DeKeyser12:21
xG 0.45–0.42 (52%)attempts 13–7goals 2–0
- Kronwall – Green12:03
xG 0.41–0.56 (43%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOshie – Kuznetsov – Vrana8:54
xG 0.52–0.20 (73%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Beagle – Smith-Pelly – Connolly3:41
xG 0.31–0.01 (96%)attempts 4–1goals 2–0
- Beagle – Smith-Pelly – Stephenson5:54
xG 0.24–0.08 (75%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Eller – Stephenson – Burakovsky3:06
xG 0.09–0.01 (89%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Bowey3:22
xG 0.39–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
- Orpik – Niskanen2:41
xG 0.29–0.11 (72%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Carlson – Djoos12:52
xG 0.57–0.39 (59%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).