Sun, Feb 11, 2018·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
New York Rangers 3, Winnipeg Jets 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 16 | 018 | 24 | 328 |
| WPG | 111 | 010 | 017 | 138 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:06WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 18:54NYRMats ZuccarelloAssists: Nick Holden · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P3 16:07NYRJimmy VeseyGWGAssists: Brady Skjei, David Desharnais · Deflected, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 19:17NYRMichael GrabnerENAssists: Kevin Hayes · Backhand, 0.62 xG3–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:48NYRKevin Hayes: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:33WPGTyler Myers: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:10WPGDustin Byfuglien: Holding2 min
- P2 11:13NYRCody McLeod: Interference2 min
- P2 13:21NYRCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:21WPGMatt Hendricks: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:39WPGBlake Wheeler: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 0:56NYRJ.T. Miller: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:12NYRJ.T. Miller: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:42WPGNikolaj Ehlers: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hayes won the faceoff against Copp
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestNash – Zuccarello – Zibanejad9:31
xG 0.46–0.23 (67%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Fast – Vesey8:00
xG 0.32–0.28 (53%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- McLeod – Holland – Lettieri3:23
xG 0.02–0.01 (73%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Grabner – Hayes – Miller9:46
xG 0.22–0.39 (36%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKampfer – Skjei13:02
xG 0.56–0.49 (53%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Holden – DeAngelo12:14
xG 0.24–0.17 (58%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Gilmour – Pionk7:14
xG 0.22–0.27 (45%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Perreault – Scheifele10:40
xG 0.57–0.35 (62%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Petan – Roslovic5:02
xG 0.10–0.01 (94%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Little – Ehlers – Laine8:44
xG 0.17–0.09 (66%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Armia – Copp – Connor9:29
xG 0.29–0.52 (35%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Byfuglien15:16
xG 0.65–0.56 (54%)attempts 17–12goals 0–1
- Myers – Morrissey14:31
xG 0.62–0.64 (49%)attempts 15–14goals 0–1
- Kulikov – Chiarot8:21
xG 0.08–0.20 (30%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).