Mon, Feb 12, 2018·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Florida Panthers 7, Edmonton Oilers 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 113 | 214 | 413 | 740 |
| EDM | 111 | 212 | 29 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:46FLAAaron EkbladPPAssists: Denis Malgin, Mike Matheson · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–0
- P1 18:35EDMPatrick MaroonAssists: Yohann Auvitu, Connor McDavid · Backhand, 0.29 xG1–1
- P2 2:46EDMLeon DraisaitlUnassisted · Snap, 0.35 xG1–2
- P2 6:21FLADenis MalginAssists: Mike Matheson, Mark Pysyk · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 9:35EDMDrake CaggiulaAssists: Kris Russell, Jujhar Khaira · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–3
- P2 9:58FLAEvgenii DadonovAssists: Nick Bjugstad, Aaron Ekblad · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–3
- P3 0:18FLAVincent TrocheckPPAssists: Keith Yandle, Aleksander Barkov · Backhand, 0.19 xG4–3
- P3 6:05FLAVincent TrocheckPPAssists: Keith Yandle, Jonathan Huberdeau · Snap, 0.05 xG5–3
- P3 6:53EDMAnton SlepyshevAssists: Mark Letestu · Snap, 0.08 xG5–4
- P3 10:46FLAEvgenii DadonovGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.35 xG6–4
- P3 14:58EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Patrick Maroon · Snap, 0.18 xG6–5
- P3 19:00FLAVincent TrocheckENAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.67 xG7–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 16:20EDMBrandon Davidson: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 1:33EDMPatrick Maroon: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 2:46FLAAaron Ekblad: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P2 19:38EDMKris Russell: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:53EDMJesse Puljujarvi: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 10:46EDMMatt Benning: Penalty shot slash on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Draisaitl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Bjugstad – Barkov13:42
xG 0.88–0.36 (71%)attempts 17–7goals 1–1
- Trocheck – Huberdeau – Malgin12:35
xG 0.41–0.39 (51%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- McGinn – McCann – Mamin7:27
xG 0.09–0.25 (25%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Sceviour – Haley5:05
xG 0.06–0.22 (20%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Ekblad19:22
xG 1.03–0.77 (57%)attempts 21–19goals 1–1
- Petrovic – Weegar13:19
xG 0.50–0.56 (47%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
- Pysyk – Matheson19:26
xG 0.67–1.33 (34%)attempts 19–23goals 1–3
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestLetestu – Kassian – Slepyshev6:32
xG 0.41–0.03 (93%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Maroon – Strome – McDavid14:35
xG 0.81–0.64 (56%)attempts 18–17goals 1–0
- Khaira – Puljujarvi – Caggiula7:38
xG 0.29–0.31 (48%)attempts 5–5goals 1–1
- Cammalleri – Lucic – Draisaitl14:35
xG 0.34–0.76 (31%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDavidson – Nurse18:22
xG 0.88–0.57 (61%)attempts 24–16goals 1–1
- Russell – Klefbom17:01
xG 0.75–0.50 (60%)attempts 19–15goals 2–1
- Klefbom – Benning2:15
xG 0.17–0.06 (75%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).