Tue, Feb 13, 2018·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New Jersey Devils 5, Philadelphia Flyers 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 09 | 312 | 112 | 03 | 1 | 536 |
| PHI | 113 | 313 | 07 | 02 | 0 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:54PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Claude Giroux, Shayne Gostisbehere · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 4:06NJDTaylor HallAssists: Sami Vatanen · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 4:49PHIScott LaughtonAssists: Michael Raffl, Andrew MacDonald · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–2
- P2 10:36PHIRadko GudasAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Dale Weise · Slap, 0.02 xG1–3
- P2 13:17NJDJohn MooreAssists: Travis Zajac, Jesper Bratt · Slap, 0.03 xG2–3
- P2 15:59PHIClaude GirouxPPAssists: Jakub Voracek, Shayne Gostisbehere · Snap, 0.09 xG2–4
- P2 16:09NJDNico HischierAssists: Jesper Bratt · Snap, 0.09 xG3–4
- P3 18:39NJDTaylor HallAssists: Nico Hischier, Travis Zajac · Wrist, 0.26 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. PHI Jordan Weal stopped
- 2. NJD Kyle Palmieri stopped
- 3. PHI Travis Konecny stopped
- 4. NJD Drew Stafford scored
- 5. PHI Jakub Voracek stopped
Penalties (10)
- P1 4:34NJDMiles Wood: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 10:11PHIWayne Simmonds: High sticking2 min
- P1 12:49NJDStefan Noesen: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 13:31PHISean Couturier: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:40PHIShayne Gostisbehere: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:40NJDMiles Wood: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:04PHISean Couturier: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:10NJDTravis Zajac: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 3:26NJDNick Lappin: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:10NJDMiles Wood: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Patrick won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Hall – Hischier3:43
xG 0.64–0.17 (79%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Hall – Bratt – Hischier2:47
xG 0.16–0.02 (89%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Stafford – Hayes – Coleman2:01
xG 0.07–0.02 (77%)attempts 2–1goals 0–1
- Zajac – Palmieri – Hall2:01
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Butcher2:06
xG 0.24–0.05 (84%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Greene – Vatanen16:36
xG 1.10–0.91 (55%)attempts 20–19goals 0–0
- Lovejoy – Butcher6:02
xG 0.07–0.40 (16%)attempts 5–8goals 1–2
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestVoracek – Simmonds – Patrick12:11
xG 0.84–0.33 (72%)attempts 19–8goals 0–0
- Giroux – Couturier – Konecny10:25
xG 0.69–0.43 (62%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Weal – Laughton – Raffl7:06
xG 0.48–0.24 (66%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
- Filppula – Lehtera – Weise6:05
xG 0.08–0.66 (10%)attempts 5–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Provorov13:36
xG 0.62–0.15 (80%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- MacDonald – Hagg11:01
xG 0.69–0.75 (48%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
- Manning – Gudas12:24
xG 0.50–0.59 (46%)attempts 11–16goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).