Tue, Feb 13, 2018·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Ottawa Senators 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 011 | 214 | 18 | 333 |
| PIT | 14 | 37 | 217 | 628 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:07PITJake GuentzelPPAssists: Justin Schultz, Evgeni Malkin · Tip-in, 0.19 xG0–1
- P2 4:18OTTDerick BrassardAssists: Mark Stone, Mark Borowiecki · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 5:10PITJake GuentzelAssists: Phil Kessel, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 10:01PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Carl Hagelin, Justin Schultz · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–3
- P2 11:22PITZachary Aston-ReeseGWGAssists: Sidney Crosby, Conor Sheary · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–4
- P2 17:19OTTColin WhiteAssists: Max McCormick, Tom Pyatt · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–4
- P3 10:09PITKris LetangAssists: Brian Dumoulin, Sidney Crosby · Slap, 0.04 xG2–5
- P3 14:21OTTMatt DuchenePPAssists: Mike Hoffman, Erik Karlsson · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–5
- P3 18:55PITZachary Aston-ReeseENAssists: Brian Dumoulin, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.68 xG3–6
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:26OTTMike Hoffman: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 14:00PITBryan Rust: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:36PITIan Cole: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:36OTTMax McCormick: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:36PITIan Cole: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Brassard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBrassard – Smith – Stone16:32
xG 0.88–0.27 (76%)attempts 17–9goals 1–1
- DiDomenico – Paajarvi – McCormick3:53
xG 0.04–0.05 (48%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Pyatt – McCormick – White2:28
xG 0.16–0.20 (45%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Hoffman – Duchene – White6:34
xG 0.14–0.19 (41%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBorowiecki – Chabot9:47
xG 0.75–0.16 (83%)attempts 12–10goals 2–0
- Karlsson – Chabot5:54
xG 0.48–0.21 (69%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Ceci8:45
xG 0.30–0.28 (52%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKessel – Sheahan – Guentzel9:39
xG 0.86–0.56 (60%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Crosby – Sheary – Aston-Reese7:36
xG 0.40–0.24 (63%)attempts 14–7goals 2–1
- Malkin – Kessel – Hagelin5:40
xG 0.20–0.18 (53%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Reaves – Rowney – Aston-Reese3:22
xG 0.05–0.03 (60%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Dumoulin18:32
xG 1.28–0.62 (67%)attempts 26–13goals 3–0
- Schultz – Maatta16:55
xG 0.43–0.71 (38%)attempts 17–19goals 0–0
- Cole – Oleksiak14:25
xG 0.26–0.60 (31%)attempts 11–19goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).