Tue, Feb 13, 2018·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Los Angeles Kings 3, Carolina Hurricanes 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 03 | 214 | 113 | 330 |
| CAR | 318 | 216 | 27 | 741 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:40CARJaccob SlavinAssists: Jordan Staal, Brett Pesce · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 8:56CARJustin FaulkAssists: Justin Williams, Victor Rask · Slap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P1 17:43CARJustin FaulkPPAssists: Sebastian Aho, Teuvo Teravainen · Slap, 0.08 xG0–3
- P2 1:17CARJustin FaulkPPGWGAssists: Sebastian Aho, Teuvo Teravainen · Slap, 0.05 xG0–4
- P2 7:42CARJeff SkinnerPPAssists: Victor Rask, Justin Williams · Snap, 0.11 xG0–5
- P2 11:49LAKAnze KopitarPPAssists: Jake Muzzin, Tyler Toffoli · Slap, 0.04 xG1–5
- P2 17:05LAKTyler ToffoliAssists: Tanner Pearson, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–5
- P3 6:43LAKTorrey MitchellAssists: Kyle Clifford, Drew Doughty · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–5
- P3 14:15CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Phillip Di Giuseppe · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–6
- P3 16:32CARSebastian AhoAssists: Teuvo Teravainen · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–7
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:42LAKAdrian Kempe: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 5:25CARNoah Hanifin: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:39LAKTorrey Mitchell: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 19:30LAKDerek Forbort: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 5:59LAKAlex Iafallo: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:35CARJeff Skinner: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 12:32LAKDerek Forbort: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestKopitar – Toffoli – Pearson5:40
xG 0.41–0.27 (60%)attempts 7–4goals 1–1
- Gaborik – Kempe – Iafallo2:34
xG 0.20–0.10 (68%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Toffoli – Iafallo2:51
xG 0.10–0.04 (75%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
- Andreoff – Shore – Amadio2:52
xG 0.12–0.06 (67%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – LaDue11:28
xG 0.66–0.22 (75%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Doughty8:20
xG 0.58–0.26 (69%)attempts 12–5goals 1–2
- Muzzin – LaDue5:50
xG 0.13–0.16 (46%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Rask – Teravainen6:43
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Williams – Rask – McGinn2:41
xG 0.10–0.01 (93%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Nordstrom – Di Giuseppe – Ryan6:22
xG 0.12–0.12 (50%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Staal – McGinn – Lindholm8:16
xG 0.32–0.48 (40%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Fleury16:53
xG 0.50–0.41 (55%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Hanifin12:44
xG 1.00–1.13 (47%)attempts 18–15goals 1–1
- Slavin – Pesce15:47
xG 0.41–0.73 (36%)attempts 14–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).