Tue, Feb 13, 2018·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
St. Louis Blues 3, Nashville Predators 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 17 | 216 | 07 | 01 | 331 |
| NSH | 013 | 03 | 315 | 12 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:18STLJay BouwmeesterAssists: Patrik Berglund, Brayden Schenn · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 3:10STLAlexander SteenAssists: Paul Stastny, Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–0
- P2 9:00STLJaden SchwartzPPAssists: Alexander Steen, Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–0
- P3 9:06NSHCalle JarnkrokAssists: Mattias Ekholm, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–1
- P3 14:33NSHAustin WatsonSHAssists: Ryan Ellis, Colton Sissons · Wrist, 0.34 xG3–2
- P3 15:48NSHAustin WatsonAssists: Craig Smith, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–3
- OT 1:19NSHFilip ForsbergGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.35 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:47STLVince Dunn: Holding2 min
- P1 16:52STLCarl Gunnarsson: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:47NSHRyan Johansen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 13:07STLAlex Pietrangelo: Holding2 min
- P2 14:57NSHKevin Fiala: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 13:37NSHCraig Smith: High sticking2 min
- OT 1:19STLJaden Schwartz: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBerglund – Schenn – Schwartz12:06
xG 0.48–0.14 (77%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Sobotka – Jaskin – Barbashev4:24
xG 0.07–0.06 (57%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Upshall – Brodziak4:34
xG 0.04–0.03 (52%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Upshall – Brodziak – Sobotka3:05
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Dunn4:36
xG 0.39–0.05 (89%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Gunnarsson – Pietrangelo16:10
xG 0.47–0.32 (59%)attempts 11–20goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Parayko18:56
xG 0.37–0.80 (32%)attempts 12–22goals 1–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestTurris – Smith – Fiala7:47
xG 0.30–0.06 (82%)attempts 17–5goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Bonino – Jarnkrok10:50
xG 0.30–0.21 (59%)attempts 14–7goals 1–1
- Hartnell – Bonino – Watson2:19
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Watson – Salomaki – Sissons5:49
xG 0.03–0.17 (16%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Ellis16:14
xG 1.09–0.31 (78%)attempts 25–15goals 1–1
- Emelin – Weber10:25
xG 0.14–0.09 (60%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Subban – Ekholm16:14
xG 0.51–0.64 (44%)attempts 24–8goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).