Tue, Feb 13, 2018·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
New York Rangers 2, Minnesota Wild 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 111 | 119 | 04 | 234 |
| MIN | 313 | 08 | 08 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:09MINEric StaalUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 4:34MINZach PariseUnassisted · Deflected, 0.05 xG0–2
- P1 6:17MINMarcus FolignoGWGAssists: Daniel Winnik, Joel Eriksson Ek · Snap, 0.11 xG0–3
- P1 8:50NYRJohn GilmourPPAssists: Tony DeAngelo, Kevin Hayes · Slap, 0.05 xG1–3
- P2 11:46NYRKevin HayesPPAssists: Michael Grabner, Neal Pionk · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:29MINNino Niederreiter: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 17:37NYRJ.T. Miller: Interference2 min
- P2 1:24MINNino Niederreiter: Holding2 min
- P2 9:08MINNate Prosser: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:36NYRRick Nash: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:31MINMathew Dumba: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Desharnais
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestMcLeod – Holland – Lettieri7:20
xG 0.36–0.19 (66%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Nash – Zuccarello – Zibanejad11:17
xG 0.15–0.33 (31%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
- Grabner – Hayes – Miller12:40
xG 0.05–0.34 (14%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Fast – Vesey10:44
xG 0.02–0.71 (3%)attempts 3–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – DeAngelo13:37
xG 0.52–0.46 (53%)attempts 13–13goals 0–1
- Gilmour – DeAngelo3:24
xG 0.02–0.02 (51%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Skjei – Pionk20:45
xG 0.16–0.37 (30%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Parise – Coyle6:24
xG 0.37–0.05 (87%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Staal – Zucker – Niederreiter3:43
xG 0.33–0.03 (92%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Winnik – Foligno – Eriksson Ek9:25
xG 0.32–0.05 (86%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Cullen – Ennis – Coyle4:05
xG 0.24–0.01 (98%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDumba – Olofsson18:57
xG 0.77–0.36 (68%)attempts 16–14goals 2–0
- Prosser – Seeler10:34
xG 0.47–0.24 (66%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Suter – Spurgeon18:29
xG 0.09–0.18 (33%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).