Tue, Feb 13, 2018·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Chicago Blackhawks 2, Vegas Golden Knights 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 110 | 18 | 013 | 231 |
| VGK | 112 | 013 | 412 | 537 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:10CHITommy WingelsPPAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Alex DeBrincat · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 5:06VGKRyan CarpenterAssists: Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Deryk Engelland · Backhand, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 6:37CHIAlex DeBrincatAssists: Patrick Sharp, Ryan Hartman · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 1:14VGKBrad HuntPPAssists: David Perron, Colin Miller · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 3:07VGKReilly SmithGWGAssists: William Karlsson, Nate Schmidt · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 4:54VGKDavid PerronAssists: James Neal · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–4
- P3 18:44VGKTomas NosekENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.55 xG2–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:00VGKDeryk Engelland: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 12:06CHIErik Gustafsson: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:10CHIDuncan Keith: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:16CHIPatrick Kane: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:59VGKMarc-Andre Fleury: Penalty shot throwing object at puck0 min
- P2 10:35CHIBrent Seabrook: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:24CHITommy Wingels: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 2:26CHIPatrick Sharp: Cross checking2 min
- P3 2:26VGKDavid Perron: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 11:46VGKOscar Lindberg: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:52CHIConnor Murphy: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Marchessault won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestToews – Wingels – Saad7:03
xG 0.58–0.30 (66%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Anisimov – Kane – Schmaltz7:47
xG 0.37–0.15 (71%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Bouma – Jurco – Kampf7:29
xG 0.28–0.18 (61%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Sharp – Hartman – DeBrincat9:19
xG 0.48–0.61 (44%)attempts 9–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeabrook – Kempny10:43
xG 0.48–0.28 (63%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Murphy – Gustafsson8:16
xG 0.41–0.51 (44%)attempts 12–12goals 1–1
- Gustafsson – Dahlstrom2:16
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestCarpenter – Bellemare – Nosek8:44
xG 0.33–0.13 (71%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault8:50
xG 0.80–0.73 (52%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Eakin – Leipsic – Tuch4:55
xG 0.09–0.19 (31%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
- Neal – Perron – Lindberg6:48
xG 0.26–0.44 (37%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Hunt11:33
xG 0.64–0.23 (74%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Engelland – Theodore13:58
xG 0.52–0.57 (48%)attempts 14–15goals 1–0
- McNabb – Schmidt11:27
xG 0.21–1.12 (16%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).