Wed, Feb 14, 2018·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 119 | 222 | 016 | 357 |
| TOR | 212 | 27 | 29 | 628 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:38TORDominic MooreAssists: Roman Polak, Travis Dermott · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 7:36TORNazem KadriUnassisted · Snap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P1 18:21CBJNick FolignoAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Dean Kukan · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 2:25CBJNick FolignoAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Oliver Bjorkstrand · Snap, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 8:03TORNazem KadriAssists: Morgan Rielly, Travis Dermott · Snap, 0.13 xG2–3
- P2 10:17TORMitch MarnerGWGAssists: Nazem Kadri, Patrick Marleau · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–4
- P2 14:35CBJJack JohnsonAssists: Nick Foligno, Markus Nutivaara · Slap, 0.03 xG3–4
- P3 11:21TORNazem KadriAssists: Mitch Marner, Patrick Marleau · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–5
- P3 18:13TORPatrick MarleauENAssists: Leo Komarov, Nazem Kadri · Backhand, 0.74 xG3–6
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:31CBJJosh Anderson: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:40CBJNick Foligno: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:37TORKasperi Kapanen: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:55TORNazem Kadri: Holding2 min
- P3 13:57CBJNick Foligno: Elbowing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubinsky won the faceoff against Bozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Jenner – Anderson10:15
xG 1.29–0.09 (94%)attempts 23–5goals 0–0
- Foligno – Bjorkstrand – Wennberg10:44
xG 1.07–0.23 (82%)attempts 25–4goals 3–0
- Atkinson – Panarin – Dubois10:35
xG 0.71–0.52 (58%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Calvert – Sedlak4:50
xG 0.23–0.15 (60%)attempts 4–5goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Werenski17:18
xG 1.44–0.68 (68%)attempts 31–16goals 0–0
- Savard – Kukan11:59
xG 1.20–0.46 (72%)attempts 23–10goals 2–2
- Johnson – Nutivaara15:34
xG 1.03–0.51 (67%)attempts 24–9goals 1–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- Marleau – Kadri – Marner11:47
xG 0.76–0.78 (50%)attempts 13–17goals 3–0
- Komarov – Bozak – Kapanen3:22
xG 0.04–0.20 (18%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Moore – Komarov – Kapanen8:49
xG 0.29–0.57 (34%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Brown6:41
xG 0.20–0.69 (22%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Rielly8:08
xG 0.54–0.36 (60%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Rielly – Dermott2:10
xG 0.13–0.02 (84%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Hainsey – Zaitsev6:01
xG 0.29–0.42 (40%)attempts 5–11goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).