Wed, Feb 14, 2018·Pepsi Center, Denver
Montréal Canadiens 0, Colorado Avalanche 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 09 | 017 | 018 | 044 |
| COL | 07 | 113 | 15 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 15:55COLCarl SoderbergGWGAssists: Gabriel Bourque, A.J. Greer · Wrap-around, 0.06 xG0–1
- P3 16:58COLAlexander KerfootAssists: Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
Penalties (6)
- P2 1:55COLAlexander Kerfoot: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:44MTLMax Pacioretty: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:39COLDominic Toninato: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:40COLMikko Rantanen: Holding2 min
- P3 3:00COLCarl Soderberg: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 8:56MTLNicolas Deslauriers: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Soderberg won the faceoff against Byron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGalchenyuk – Drouin – Scherbak8:01
xG 0.44–0.20 (68%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Deslauriers – Froese – Shaw7:50
xG 0.32–0.26 (56%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Byron – Pacioretty – Lehkonen8:11
xG 0.47–0.47 (50%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Gallagher – Hudon8:49
xG 0.21–0.35 (37%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchlemko – Benn4:13
xG 1.12–0.06 (95%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Schlemko – Mete8:46
xG 0.47–0.18 (72%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Petry – Alzner15:15
xG 0.67–0.53 (56%)attempts 21–11goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestWilson – Landeskog – Kerfoot10:36
xG 1.01–0.37 (73%)attempts 18–7goals 1–0
- Yakupov – Toninato – Greer4:28
xG 0.10–0.13 (43%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Bourque – Nieto9:46
xG 0.13–0.32 (28%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Compher – Rantanen – Jost9:20
xG 0.16–1.02 (13%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Barrie3:30
xG 0.31–0.12 (73%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Barrie – Zadorov2:12
xG 0.22–0.03 (89%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Nemeth – Girard9:04
xG 0.18–0.16 (53%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).