Thu, Feb 15, 2018·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
New York Rangers 0, New York Islanders 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 015 | 014 | 021 | 050 |
| NYI | 111 | 116 | 18 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:53NYIJosh BaileyPPGWGAssists: Nick Leddy, Mathew Barzal · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 15:06NYIJordan EberleAssists: Nick Leddy, Mathew Barzal · Snap, 0.09 xG0–2
- P3 3:57NYIThomas HickeyAssists: Mathew Barzal, Anthony Beauvillier · Backhand, 0.03 xG0–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 4:42NYRBrady Skjei: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 12:30NYIAdam Pelech: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:13NYIDennis Seidenberg: Holding2 min
- P2 7:23NYRJ.T. Miller: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:18NYIJordan Eberle: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Hayes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestDesharnais – Fast – Vesey10:34
xG 0.91–0.14 (87%)attempts 19–5goals 0–0
- Nash – Zuccarello – Zibanejad10:51
xG 0.89–0.15 (86%)attempts 20–5goals 0–0
- Grabner – Hayes – Miller12:53
xG 0.42–0.43 (49%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- McLeod – Holland – Lettieri7:37
xG 0.20–0.51 (29%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Pionk16:14
xG 1.32–0.45 (75%)attempts 25–11goals 0–0
- Gilmour – DeAngelo2:21
xG 0.25–0.17 (60%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Holden – Pionk2:24
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Barzal – Beauvillier11:26
xG 1.27–1.05 (55%)attempts 15–20goals 1–0
- Ladd – Nelson – Fritz9:41
xG 0.37–0.30 (56%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Cizikas – Johnston8:33
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
- Bailey – Tavares – Lee15:00
xG 0.50–1.17 (30%)attempts 11–23goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Leddy16:25
xG 1.17–0.92 (56%)attempts 15–24goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Hickey14:00
xG 0.41–0.81 (33%)attempts 10–17goals 1–0
- Pelech – Pulock15:19
xG 0.24–1.09 (18%)attempts 9–26goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).