Thu, Feb 15, 2018·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Detroit Red Wings 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 017 | 111 | 011 | 139 |
| TBL | 212 | 113 | 17 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:55TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 7:05TBLNikita KucherovPPGWGAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–2
- P2 18:08TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman · Slap, 0.11 xG0–3
- P2 19:29DETTomas TatarPPAssists: Niklas Kronwall, Tyler Bertuzzi · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
- P3 1:35TBLAlex KillornAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:25TBLSteven Stamkos: High sticking2 min
- P1 5:58DETAnthony Mantha: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 18:43TBLBraydon Coburn: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:23DETDanny DeKeyser: Holding2 min
- P2 16:43DETAnthony Mantha: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 18:36TBLVladislav Namestnikov: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 19:32DETFrans Nielsen: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Namestnikov won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Nyquist – Mantha13:55
xG 0.54–0.44 (55%)attempts 15–13goals 0–1
- Booth – Glendening – Frk5:23
xG 0.02–0.08 (22%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Tatar – Bertuzzi – Larkin12:05
xG 0.27–0.36 (43%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Abdelkader – Helm11:45
xG 0.30–0.40 (43%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Green12:58
xG 0.30–0.16 (65%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Daley2:05
xG 0.11–0.14 (44%)attempts 4–1goals 0–1
- Jensen – DeKeyser15:40
xG 0.34–0.74 (31%)attempts 11–18goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Kucherov – Point12:42
xG 0.71–0.17 (81%)attempts 18–5goals 1–0
- Kunitz – Callahan – Namestnikov10:17
xG 0.29–0.14 (68%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Johnson – Gourde12:08
xG 0.36–0.45 (44%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
- Peca – Paquette – Erne6:20
xG 0.08–0.30 (21%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Sergachev6:33
xG 0.49–0.03 (94%)attempts 11–3goals 1–0
- Girardi – Hedman9:08
xG 0.58–0.34 (64%)attempts 16–13goals 1–0
- Hedman – Sustr2:45
xG 0.11–0.04 (71%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).