Thu, Feb 15, 2018·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Washington Capitals 5, Minnesota Wild 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 06 | 29 | 312 | 527 |
| MIN | 08 | 08 | 218 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:59WSHTom WilsonAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Dmitry Orlov · Snap, 0.01 xG1–0
- P2 5:51WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Andre Burakovsky · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
- P3 2:29WSHAndre BurakovskyGWGAssists: Brett Connolly, Philipp Grubauer · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–0
- P3 4:25MINNino NiederreiterAssists: Mikko Koivu, Gustav Olofsson · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–1
- P3 15:06WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Tom Wilson · Wrist, 0.23 xG4–1
- P3 16:48MINEric StaalPPAssists: Mikael Granlund, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–2
- P3 17:46WSHTom WilsonENAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.64 xG5–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:23MINNino Niederreiter: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:14WSHDevante Smith-Pelly: Holding2 min
- P2 11:29MINEric Staal: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:15WSHTom Wilson: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:26WSHLars Eller: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 16:34WSHBrooks Orpik: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 19:19WSHTaylor Chorney: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Backstrom – Wilson11:46
xG 0.61–0.45 (58%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Eller – Connolly – Burakovsky8:51
xG 0.15–0.14 (52%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Beagle – Smith-Pelly – Stephenson9:10
xG 0.04–0.14 (20%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Oshie – Kuznetsov – Vrana10:50
xG 0.45–0.81 (36%)attempts 7–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Chorney12:19
xG 0.46–0.24 (66%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Niskanen – Orlov16:35
xG 0.51–0.91 (36%)attempts 14–22goals 2–1
- Carlson – Djoos15:35
xG 0.27–0.71 (28%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Parise – Zucker4:45
xG 0.56–0.18 (75%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Koivu – Zucker – Granlund6:12
xG 0.32–0.02 (93%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Koivu – Granlund – Niederreiter3:57
xG 0.55–0.36 (61%)attempts 10–3goals 1–1
- Staal – Ennis – Niederreiter6:01
xG 0.08–0.05 (62%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon18:49
xG 0.90–0.59 (60%)attempts 19–14goals 0–2
- Prosser – Seeler12:24
xG 0.26–0.11 (70%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Dumba – Olofsson16:17
xG 0.42–0.68 (38%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).