Thu, Feb 15, 2018·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Edmonton Oilers 1, Vegas Golden Knights 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 09 | 011 | 19 | 129 |
| VGK | 111 | 210 | 17 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:04VGKRyan CarpenterAssists: Deryk Engelland, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 4:18VGKJonathan MarchessaultGWGAssists: Nate Schmidt, Reilly Smith · Deflected, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 12:47VGKWilliam KarlssonPPAssists: David Perron, Brad Hunt · Wrist, 0.30 xG0–3
- P3 4:15VGKErik HaulaAssists: James Neal, David Perron · Deflected, 0.15 xG0–4
- P3 12:31EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Oscar Klefbom, Michael Cammalleri · Slap, 0.06 xG1–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 7:48VGKDeryk Engelland: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:28EDMConnor McDavid: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 2:11EDMBrandon Davidson: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:02EDMJujhar Khaira: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:02VGKColin Miller: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Marchessault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestStrome – Slepyshev – McDavid4:36
xG 0.45–0.06 (88%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Letestu – Kassian – Slepyshev6:41
xG 0.20–0.04 (83%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Letestu – Maroon – Kassian3:40
xG 0.11–0.02 (81%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Khaira – Puljujarvi – Caggiula9:29
xG 0.24–0.24 (51%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlefbom – Benning9:39
xG 0.55–0.11 (83%)attempts 14–4goals 1–0
- Benning – Auvitu8:58
xG 0.50–0.26 (66%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Davidson – Auvitu7:47
xG 0.22–0.04 (85%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestEakin – Lindberg – Tuch8:54
xG 0.74–0.41 (64%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Carpenter – Bellemare – Nosek10:15
xG 0.85–0.61 (59%)attempts 22–12goals 1–0
- Neal – Perron – Haula13:28
xG 0.36–0.40 (47%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault13:46
xG 0.20–0.33 (38%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Theodore17:54
xG 0.95–0.77 (55%)attempts 16–20goals 1–1
- McNabb – Schmidt14:28
xG 0.79–0.77 (51%)attempts 21–13goals 1–0
- Miller – Hunt14:25
xG 0.36–0.45 (44%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).