Fri, Feb 16, 2018·American Airlines Center, Dallas
St. Louis Blues 1, Dallas Stars 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 08 | 012 | 19 | 129 |
| DAL | 03 | 17 | 16 | 216 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:42DALMattias JanmarkPPAssists: John Klingberg, Martin Hanzal · Deflected, 0.03 xG0–1
- P3 10:33DALStephen JohnsGWGAssists: Jamie Benn, Marc Methot · Slap, 0.02 xG0–2
- P3 18:46STLBrayden SchennPPAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Vladimir Tarasenko · Tip-in, 0.19 xG1–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 5:48DALBrett Ritchie: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:23STLJaden Schwartz: Delaying game2 min
- P1 17:33DALJason Spezza: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:12STLColton Parayko: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 4:39DALGreg Pateryn: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:03STLPaul Stastny: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:52STLVladimir Sobotka: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:42DALJohn Klingberg: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:42DALJohn Klingberg: High sticking2 min
- P3 0:00DALMarc Methot: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:00DALMarc Methot: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:00STLBrayden Schenn: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Schenn won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBerglund – Schenn – Schwartz8:22
xG 0.38–0.03 (93%)attempts 14–2goals 0–0
- Schenn – Tarasenko – Schwartz2:37
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Upshall – Brodziak3:06
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Steen – Stastny – Tarasenko9:31
xG 0.09–0.17 (35%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Dunn5:55
xG 0.29–0.12 (72%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – Parayko3:21
xG 0.18–0.04 (82%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Gunnarsson – Parayko2:49
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Ritchie – Smith4:07
xG 0.24–0.01 (97%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Hanzal – Shore – Janmark5:27
xG 0.02–0.01 (61%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Radulov – Benn – Seguin10:04
xG 0.17–0.20 (46%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
- Spezza – Shore – Janmark3:04
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Lindell11:55
xG 0.46–0.27 (63%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Methot – Johns10:41
xG 0.03–0.19 (15%)attempts 4–12goals 1–0
- Hamhuis – Pateryn15:25
xG 0.15–0.31 (33%)attempts 7–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).