Sat, Feb 17, 2018·Amalie Arena, Tampa
New Jersey Devils 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 19 | 212 | 17 | 428 |
| TBL | 116 | 117 | 118 | 351 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:59NJDBen LovejoyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 12:41TBLChris KunitzAssists: Ryan Callahan · Slap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 2:47TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: Yanni Gourde, Mikhail Sergachev · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–2
- P2 3:13NJDNico HischierAssists: Taylor Hall, Sami Vatanen · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 6:27NJDPavel ZachaSHAssists: Sami Vatanen, Ben Lovejoy · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 1:24NJDMiles WoodGWGAssists: Stefan Noesen · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–2
- P3 5:15TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov · Slap, 0.05 xG4–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 8:46TBLSteven Stamkos: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:39NJDBlake Coleman: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:54NJDSami Vatanen: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 4:54NJDMiles Wood: Boarding2 min
- P2 4:54NJDMiles Wood: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:54TBLAndrej Sustr: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:33NJDStefan Noesen: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:00TBLVictor Hedman: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:26TBLYanni Gourde: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:03NJDKyle Palmieri: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 11:56NJDTaylor Hall: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestZajac – Noesen – Wood8:03
xG 0.68–0.16 (81%)attempts 12–4goals 1–1
- Hall – Bratt – Hischier7:06
xG 0.18–0.13 (58%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Stafford – Hayes – Coleman3:54
xG 0.14–0.10 (58%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Zacha – Lappin2:24
xG 0.04–0.11 (28%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Butcher5:18
xG 0.16–0.08 (69%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Severson – Butcher3:45
xG 0.15–0.07 (67%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Lovejoy – Moore2:38
xG 0.02–0.08 (23%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Kucherov – Point11:37
xG 0.80–0.16 (83%)attempts 17–5goals 0–2
- Stamkos – Johnson – Gourde9:05
xG 0.48–0.26 (64%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Conacher – Paquette – Erne6:37
xG 0.32–0.20 (61%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Callahan – Namestnikov6:37
xG 0.30–0.50 (38%)attempts 7–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – Sergachev8:40
xG 0.51–0.03 (95%)attempts 11–1goals 1–0
- Stralman – Hedman11:42
xG 0.65–0.25 (72%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Girardi – Hedman2:17
xG 0.29–0.08 (79%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).